Value
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
QMCO · Why this verdict
Why Quantum (QMCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Quantum is a heavily shorted, speculative hardware company with 26% YoY growth and 32% analyst upside, but quality is below the floor, short interest is 60% and the stock sits 51% below its high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quantum is growing strongly at 26% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $80.8M in June 2026 versus $64.3M a year earlier and a next-quarter estimate of $82.3M. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $80M and moves toward the $82.3M estimate over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declined for years before this recovery (for instance $75.7M in September 2023), so the current growth may be a short rebound rather than a durable trend. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.9/10, below the 4.0 floor, with a net margin score of 0 and a Piotroski F-Score component of 4.4. Quality breakdown | Net margin turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent losses and a quality rank of 0 against peers show the business may not reach profitability without further financing. | ||
The analyst target of $23.23 implies 31.9% upside from $17.62, with reward-to-risk of 2.12 against 15.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings improve. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is a thin signal that has already been haircut by 15%. | ||
Short interest is 60% of float and implied volatility is 138%, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution. Risk breakdown | Short interest drops below 40% and volume turns to accumulation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy short positioning shows informed investors expect further declines, and extreme volatility can produce sharp losses despite an oversold RSI of 12. | ||
Quantum beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.18 versus a $-0.17 estimate in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates in the November 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe earlier history is mostly misses (e.g. -263% and -93%), so the recent beats may reflect low estimates rather than lasting improvement. | ||
Quantum is growing strongly at 26% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $80.8M in June 2026 versus $64.3M a year earlier and a next-quarter estimate of $82.3M.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $80M and moves toward the $82.3M estimate over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue declined for years before this recovery (for instance $75.7M in September 2023), so the current growth may be a short rebound rather than a durable trend.
Business quality is weak at 2.9/10, below the 4.0 floor, with a net margin score of 0 and a Piotroski F-Score component of 4.4.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterPersistent losses and a quality rank of 0 against peers show the business may not reach profitability without further financing.
The analyst target of $23.23 implies 31.9% upside from $17.62, with reward-to-risk of 2.12 against 15.0% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings improve.
CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is a thin signal that has already been haircut by 15%.
Short interest is 60% of float and implied volatility is 138%, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest drops below 40% and volume turns to accumulation.
CounterHeavy short positioning shows informed investors expect further declines, and extreme volatility can produce sharp losses despite an oversold RSI of 12.
Quantum beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.18 versus a $-0.17 estimate in August 2026.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates in the November 2026 report.
CounterThe earlier history is mostly misses (e.g. -263% and -93%), so the recent beats may reflect low estimates rather than lasting improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $15,856 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 59%
- ▸High IV: 139%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.86
Upside
+12.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.86.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Value at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Recovery
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $70M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $18, cutting upside to less than 5%.
- P3Low Quality Weak Profitability
Trip ifOperating margin stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Extreme Short Interest Volatility
Trip ifShort interest rises above 70% of float.
- P5Improving Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.