Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
QCRH · Why this verdict
Why QCR Holdings (QCRH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
QCR Holdings delivers a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with 21% year-over-year revenue growth, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and 37% net margins, but currently trades at just 2.6% below its 52-week high with analyst targets already reached, leaving limited near-term upside for new positions.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A 37% net margin, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a peer quality rank of 7.6/10 place QCR Holdings significantly above the median regional bank on business quality metrics, suggesting durable profitability through varied credit environments. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 30% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturn on assets of 1.0% is below the premium regional bank threshold, suggesting the quality advantage over peers is present but not exceptional enough to justify a material premium to book value. | ||
QCR Holdings has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14%, while delivering 21% year-over-year revenue growth, placing it as a top-tier performer in the regional banking peer group. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and revenue growth sustains above 10% year over year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank earnings are highly sensitive to interest rate cycles; if rates decline significantly, net interest margin compression could reduce both earnings and growth prospects quickly. | ||
The stock is trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets, with the resistance-based take profit at $95.30 only 0.6% above the current price of $94.71 and a risk-reward ratio of 0.13, meaning the stock is priced for near-perfection with minimal margin of error. Targets | Analyst consensus target rises above $105 within 6 months following additional earnings beats. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks that trade persistently near analyst targets and 52-week highs in a golden-cross configuration often see target upgrades that extend the rally; the 4-for-4 beat streak is the typical catalyst for such upgrades. | ||
A golden cross configuration with the stock above all moving averages, bullish MACD, RSI at 57, and the stock trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high indicates positive price momentum with broad technical confirmation. V9 | Price rises above $100 within 9 months while maintaining above the 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume distribution shows falling OBV despite the golden cross, which is a bearish divergence that often precedes price weakness even in the presence of positive technical patterns. | ||
A 37% net margin, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a peer quality rank of 7.6/10 place QCR Holdings significantly above the median regional bank on business quality metrics, suggesting durable profitability through varied credit environments.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 30% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above for the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets of 1.0% is below the premium regional bank threshold, suggesting the quality advantage over peers is present but not exceptional enough to justify a material premium to book value.
QCR Holdings has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 14%, while delivering 21% year-over-year revenue growth, placing it as a top-tier performer in the regional banking peer group.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and revenue growth sustains above 10% year over year.
CounterRegional bank earnings are highly sensitive to interest rate cycles; if rates decline significantly, net interest margin compression could reduce both earnings and growth prospects quickly.
The stock is trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets, with the resistance-based take profit at $95.30 only 0.6% above the current price of $94.71 and a risk-reward ratio of 0.13, meaning the stock is priced for near-perfection with minimal margin of error.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $105 within 6 months following additional earnings beats.
CounterStocks that trade persistently near analyst targets and 52-week highs in a golden-cross configuration often see target upgrades that extend the rally; the 4-for-4 beat streak is the typical catalyst for such upgrades.
A golden cross configuration with the stock above all moving averages, bullish MACD, RSI at 57, and the stock trading within 2.6% of its 52-week high indicates positive price momentum with broad technical confirmation.
↓DeterioratingV9
- Expectation
- Price rises above $100 within 9 months while maintaining above the 200-day moving average.
CounterVolume distribution shows falling OBV despite the golden cross, which is a bearish divergence that often precedes price weakness even in the presence of positive technical patterns.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 8.5 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.53
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Growth at 2.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Peer rank at 4.2, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat And Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Quality And Margin Strength
Trip ifNet margins fall below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At Or Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $85, a decline of more than 10% from the current resistance level.
- P4Golden Cross Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and OBV declines for more than 30 consecutive days.