Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
PYPL · Why this verdict
Why PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.4 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.8 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=6)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $22
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 135.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.60
Upside
+10.3%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.60 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 6.3, and Quality at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 4.0, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.