Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.86
- ▸Attractively valued
PSX · Why this verdict
Why Phillips 66 (PSX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Phillips 66 has beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row and trades at 9.3x forward earnings, but the price is 9.2% above the analyst target, quality is below average and momentum has weakened ahead of earnings in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Phillips 66 has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including $9.41 versus $7.50 expected in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates in the October 28, 2026 report and later quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRefining earnings swing widely with margins (a -$0.39 estimate in April 2026 versus $9.41 in August), and past misses of -25.6% and -15.7% show beats are not guaranteed. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with a PEG of 0.82, rated attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings hold up so forward P/E stays below roughly 11x over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterValue rank against peers is weak at about 2.7/10, so refiners generally trade at similar low multiples and Phillips 66 is not unusually cheap. | ||
The $283.18 price is 9.2% above the $257.16 analyst target, leaving reward-to-risk of -0.75 against 12.2% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above $300 as earnings keep beating estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the target exceeded and earnings in 4 days, a reversion to the target would mean a decline of roughly 9%. | ||
Business quality is below average at 4.7/10, with free cash flow at only 64% of net income although the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income and quality moves above 5. | →Stable |
| CounterThin operating and net margins leave little cushion if refining spreads compress. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.9/10 with falling on-balance volume, and insiders sold $27.0M over 90 days across 11 sales with no buys. Momentum breakdown | Volume turns to accumulation and insider selling slows over the coming quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe selling is small at 0.024% of market cap, but the falling volume suggests distribution while the price sits above its 200-day average. | ||
Phillips 66 has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, including $9.41 versus $7.50 expected in August 2026.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates in the October 28, 2026 report and later quarters.
CounterRefining earnings swing widely with margins (a -$0.39 estimate in April 2026 versus $9.41 in August), and past misses of -25.6% and -15.7% show beats are not guaranteed.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.3x with a PEG of 0.82, rated attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings hold up so forward P/E stays below roughly 11x over the next 12 months.
CounterValue rank against peers is weak at about 2.7/10, so refiners generally trade at similar low multiples and Phillips 66 is not unusually cheap.
The $283.18 price is 9.2% above the $257.16 analyst target, leaving reward-to-risk of -0.75 against 12.2% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $300 as earnings keep beating estimates.
CounterWith the target exceeded and earnings in 4 days, a reversion to the target would mean a decline of roughly 9%.
Business quality is below average at 4.7/10, with free cash flow at only 64% of net income although the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 80% of net income and quality moves above 5.
CounterThin operating and net margins leave little cushion if refining spreads compress.
Momentum is weak at 3.9/10 with falling on-balance volume, and insiders sold $27.0M over 90 days across 11 sales with no buys.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Volume turns to accumulation and insider selling slows over the coming quarters.
CounterThe selling is small at 0.024% of market cap, but the falling volume suggests distribution while the price sits above its 200-day average.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 53% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $26,982,715 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-6.1%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 8.0, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Insider at 4.0, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 13x from the current 9.3x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $265.46 stop level while the analyst target stays below $265.
- P4Below Average Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 45%.
- P5Weak Momentum And Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $60M over 90 days with 0 insider buys.