Value
9.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
PKBK · Why this verdict
Why Parke Bancorp (PKBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Parke Bancorp has strung together a strong earnings-beat streak with 31% revenue growth and a peer-relative valuation edge, but shares are already overbought and near their 52-week high, leaving limited near-term room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Parke Bancorp has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters with no misses, averaging a 44.8% surprise. Catalyst breakdown | The bank should extend its beat streak, posting at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as beats. | →Stable |
| CounterA 44.8% average surprise on a small regional bank can reflect volatile provisioning or one-time items rather than a repeatable earnings trend, and reversion is common after unusually large beats. | ||
Revenue is growing a strong 31% year-over-year alongside best-in-class margins near 52%. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY and margins should hold near current levels. | →Stable |
| Counter31% growth off a small regional-bank base is unlikely to be sustainable long-term, and net-interest-margin compression from rate cycles could quickly erode the current margin advantage. | ||
The stock trades attractively versus peers on a P/E basis, with a PEG ratio of just 0.18. Peer-rank breakdown | The P/E-vs-peers advantage and low PEG ratio should persist as earnings growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterWith shares trading within 1.1% of their 52-week high and RSI at an overbought 77, most of the near-term valuation gap may have already closed. | ||
The stock is trading within 1.1% of its 52-week high and shows an overbought RSI reading of 77. Bear case | RSI should cool from 77 toward a more sustainable 50-65 range without shares breaking meaningfully below the 52-week high. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation, so shares could push to new highs rather than pull back. | ||
Options pricing shows elevated implied volatility of roughly 73%, signaling the market expects outsized price swings. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility should compress toward 40-50% as uncertainty eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh IV can persist around a small-cap bank near its highs simply due to thin options liquidity rather than a genuine expectation of large moves, and it may not compress even if the stock is calm. | ||
Parke Bancorp has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters with no misses, averaging a 44.8% surprise.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The bank should extend its beat streak, posting at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as beats.
CounterA 44.8% average surprise on a small regional bank can reflect volatile provisioning or one-time items rather than a repeatable earnings trend, and reversion is common after unusually large beats.
Revenue is growing a strong 31% year-over-year alongside best-in-class margins near 52%.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY and margins should hold near current levels.
Counter31% growth off a small regional-bank base is unlikely to be sustainable long-term, and net-interest-margin compression from rate cycles could quickly erode the current margin advantage.
The stock trades attractively versus peers on a P/E basis, with a PEG ratio of just 0.18.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The P/E-vs-peers advantage and low PEG ratio should persist as earnings growth continues.
CounterWith shares trading within 1.1% of their 52-week high and RSI at an overbought 77, most of the near-term valuation gap may have already closed.
The stock is trading within 1.1% of its 52-week high and shows an overbought RSI reading of 77.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- RSI should cool from 77 toward a more sustainable 50-65 range without shares breaking meaningfully below the 52-week high.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the overbought reading suggests continued accumulation, so shares could push to new highs rather than pull back.
Options pricing shows elevated implied volatility of roughly 73%, signaling the market expects outsized price swings.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should compress toward 40-50% as uncertainty eases.
CounterHigh IV can persist around a small-cap bank near its highs simply due to thin options liquidity rather than a genuine expectation of large moves, and it may not compress even if the stock is calm.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 52%
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $383,251 (0.096% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:68d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.3, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Sentiment at 5.0, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current 3-beat, 0-miss streak.
- P2Strong Growth And Margins
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 31%.
- P3Attractive Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifThe peer-relative valuation edge reverses as the PEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.18.
- P4Overbought Near 52 Week High
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 from the current 77 while shares drop more than 10% from the 52-week high.
- P5Elevated Implied Volatility Risk
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 40% from the current 73%.