Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.86
PJT · Why this verdict
Why PJT Partners (PJT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PJT Partners has a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, and four consecutive earnings beats — but is in a confirmed death cross downtrend with a put-to-call ratio of 5.03, the highest in the dataset, and momentum that has failed all three entry gates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery. | ||
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital. | ||
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal. | ||
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 5.03 is exceptionally high — more than 5 times as many puts as calls outstanding — indicating extreme bearish options positioning that creates significant downside pressure risk and suggests market participants anticipate price weakness.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as bearish positioning unwinds and the technical picture improves.
CounterExtreme put-to-call ratios can reflect large institutional hedges on existing long positions rather than directional bearishness; unwinding of these hedges can accelerate price recovery.
PJT Partners has a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, ROE of 37%, ROA at maximum score, and a wide economic moat — the highest possible combination of quality signals, placing the business in the top tier of capital markets firms.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 9 and ROE stays above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters as the business maintains its advisory franchise.
CounterAdvisory boutiques with high ROE depend critically on managing director retention; if key dealmakers depart, quality metrics can deteriorate rapidly since the business is primarily human capital.
PJT is in a confirmed death cross with the moving average slope at -2.2% per month, momentum score of 3.1 out of 10, and OBV showing volume distribution — all three entry gates (momentum, asymmetry, death cross) have failed.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 5.0 and price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months before position entry is reconsidered.
CounterRSI is at 55 mid-range and the stock is near its resistance level at $160.38, suggesting momentum may be inflecting while the lagging indicators have not yet turned — entry may be early relative to the charting signal.
PJT has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11.7%, including a 32.1% beat — and revenue has grown 29% year-over-year, indicating a strong advisory cycle.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterAdvisory deal volumes are highly sensitive to market conditions; if credit markets or M&A activity slows materially, the beat streak can end quickly as deal completions shift timelines.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 9.5 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,061,689 (0.033% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $95
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-5.8% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_D_BALANCED|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.5>=7.5+momentum=6.1>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.50
Upside
-5.8%
Downside
11.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The D-path balanced-high-score trigger fired: quality 8.5 and momentum 6.1 both cleared their gates at R:R of -0.50.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.5, Growth at 8.4, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Sentiment at 5.3, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.50 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Piotroski Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 or ROE drops below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating deterioration in business quality.
- P2Extreme Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0 or open interest on puts exceeds 5 times call open interest, indicating extreme bearish positioning escalation.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $145 or momentum score falls below 2.5, indicating the downtrend is intensifying rather than recovering.
- P4Four Quarter Earnings Beat
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in the next quarterly report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.