Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
PHR · Why this verdict
Why Phreesia (PHR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PHR's earnings-beat streak and wide moat sit against declining estimate revisions, a confirmed technical downtrend, heavy options hedging, and modest insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PHR's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) and a wide economic moat, corroborated by an excellent 614% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Bull case | The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-09-03. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case flags earnings estimates trending down, suggesting analysts expect the beat streak to be harder to sustain going forward. | ||
The bear case flags earnings estimates trending down alongside a confirmed technical downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a moving-average slope of -15.9% over 30 days. Bear case | The moving-average slope should stabilize toward flat or positive and estimate revisions should turn back upward over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe engine classifies the current setup as RECOVERY, noting improving MACD and elevated RSI, suggesting the downtrend may already be bottoming despite the confirmed negative slope. | ||
Momentum notes characterize the current move as an overbought bear rally, with RSI at 74 even as price remains below the 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should either break decisively above the 200-day moving average to confirm a genuine reversal, or RSI should cool and the rally should fade back into the downtrend, within the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume during the rally suggests genuine accumulation rather than a purely technical bounce. | ||
Key risks flag an elevated put/call ratio of 5.50, indicating heavy hedging or bearish options positioning relative to the stock. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months as directional conviction resolves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single elevated put/call reading in a name down 67% from its 52-week high may reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than fresh bearish conviction. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $371,836 (0.055% of market cap) across 7 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days. Insider | Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAt only 0.055% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction. | ||
PHR's bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) and a wide economic moat, corroborated by an excellent 614% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend with a positive EPS surprise at the next report on 2026-09-03.
CounterThe bear case flags earnings estimates trending down, suggesting analysts expect the beat streak to be harder to sustain going forward.
The bear case flags earnings estimates trending down alongside a confirmed technical downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a moving-average slope of -15.9% over 30 days.
Tripped↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The moving-average slope should stabilize toward flat or positive and estimate revisions should turn back upward over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine classifies the current setup as RECOVERY, noting improving MACD and elevated RSI, suggesting the downtrend may already be bottoming despite the confirmed negative slope.
Momentum notes characterize the current move as an overbought bear rally, with RSI at 74 even as price remains below the 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should either break decisively above the 200-day moving average to confirm a genuine reversal, or RSI should cool and the rally should fade back into the downtrend, within the next 12 months.
CounterRising on-balance volume during the rally suggests genuine accumulation rather than a purely technical bounce.
Key risks flag an elevated put/call ratio of 5.50, indicating heavy hedging or bearish options positioning relative to the stock.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below over the next 12 months as directional conviction resolves.
CounterA single elevated put/call reading in a name down 67% from its 52-week high may reflect protective hedging by existing holders rather than fresh bearish conviction.
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $371,836 (0.055% of market cap) across 7 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months.
CounterAt only 0.055% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 654% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $66,470 (0.009% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.50
- ▸High IV: 97%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+1.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -49% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 1.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Insider at 7.1, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 1.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak With Wide Moat
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the September 3, 2026 earnings report, breaking the beat streak.
- P2Deteriorating Estimates And DowntrendTripped
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and the MA slope turns positive, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P3Overbought Bear Rally Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 30 while price remains below the 200-day moving average, confirming the rally has faded back into the downtrend.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 from the current 5.50.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips bullish with net insider buying that exceeds $250,000 over a 90-day window.