Value
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.6 |
| PEG | 2.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 64.8x
- ▸PEG: 4.48
- ▸Expensive valuation
PANW · Why this verdict
Why Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 425% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 65 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $7,930,819 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $105
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:70d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.39
Upside
+5.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.5 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.39 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Value at 2.1, Peer rank at 3.3, and Momentum at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.