Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
PANL · Why this verdict
Why Pangaea Logistics Solutions (PANL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.5x with a PEG ratio of just 0.12, alongside strong 39% YoY revenue growth, suggesting significant undervaluation relative to growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should remain below 10x while revenue growth stays above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping is a cyclical, capital-intensive business where a low PEG can simply reflect the market pricing in an eventual reversal of unusually strong freight rates. | ||
The company converts 134% of net income into free cash flow and carries a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high earnings quality. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should remain above 100% and the Piotroski score should stay at 7/9 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong current cash conversion in shipping can reverse quickly if freight rates soften, since working-capital swings are large in this industry. | ||
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 2.1 (below the 4.5 bar) even though the 200-day moving average is still rising (+5.3% over 30 days), consistent with a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA falling OBV alongside weak momentum could instead mark the start of a genuine trend reversal, not merely a pullback. | ||
Notable insider selling of $837,000 (0.19% of market cap) creates a tension against otherwise bullish valuation and growth signals. Insider breakdown | Insider transactions should turn neutral or bullish, or selling should not escalate, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling, even at moderate materiality, can be an early signal that those closest to the business see limited further upside. | ||
Analysts see substantial upside (64% per sentiment scoring, 40% per the bull case), supporting a case for re-rating. Bull case | Analyst price targets should hold or increase, and the stock should close a meaningful portion of the upside gap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge analyst upside estimates in cyclical shipping stocks often compress quickly if freight rate assumptions embedded in those targets prove too optimistic. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.5x with a PEG ratio of just 0.12, alongside strong 39% YoY revenue growth, suggesting significant undervaluation relative to growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should remain below 10x while revenue growth stays above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterShipping is a cyclical, capital-intensive business where a low PEG can simply reflect the market pricing in an eventual reversal of unusually strong freight rates.
The company converts 134% of net income into free cash flow and carries a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should remain above 100% and the Piotroski score should stay at 7/9 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong current cash conversion in shipping can reverse quickly if freight rates soften, since working-capital swings are large in this industry.
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 2.1 (below the 4.5 bar) even though the 200-day moving average is still rising (+5.3% over 30 days), consistent with a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterA falling OBV alongside weak momentum could instead mark the start of a genuine trend reversal, not merely a pullback.
Notable insider selling of $837,000 (0.19% of market cap) creates a tension against otherwise bullish valuation and growth signals.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn neutral or bullish, or selling should not escalate, over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider selling, even at moderate materiality, can be an early signal that those closest to the business see limited further upside.
Analysts see substantial upside (64% per sentiment scoring, 40% per the bull case), supporting a case for re-rating.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should hold or increase, and the stock should close a meaningful portion of the upside gap over the next 12 months.
CounterLarge analyst upside estimates in cyclical shipping stocks often compress quickly if freight rate assumptions embedded in those targets prove too optimistic.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pangaea Logistics screens as deeply undervalued with strong growth and cash conversion, but a failed momentum gate and notable insider selling create tension against the otherwise bullish fundamental picture.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 39% YoY
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 7.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $837,000 (0.187% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
- ▸High IV: 141%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.19%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.84
Upside
+33.7%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Quality at 4.4, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Strong Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x without a corresponding increase in growth.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80%.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure Despite Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Insider Selling Against Bullish Fundamentals
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $2 million over a rolling 90-day window.
- P5Analyst Upside Target
Trip ifAverage analyst price target falls by more than 20%.