Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
PANL · Why this verdict
Why Pangaea Logistics Solutions (PANL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pangaea Logistics combines low valuation multiples, roughly 19% revenue growth and excellent cash conversion with a 5.0% dividend, though earnings surprises are volatile and quality is only average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pangaea has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.26 versus $0.24, though the March 2026 quarter missed by 30%. Earnings | EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus, including the report due in 12 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 361% average surprise is distorted by tiny estimates (a $0.01 estimate in May), and the March miss shows results can disappoint. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $187.1M versus about $156.7M a year earlier, roughly 19% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $204.9M. Revenue quarters | Revenue keeps growing at a double-digit YoY pace over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping revenue follows freight rates and is volatile; the March 2026 quarter was below the December 2025 quarter. | ||
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 7.2x and a PEG of 0.14, and the $9.22 analyst target is 16.2% above the $7.94 price. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates toward the analyst target while forward P/E stays below 10x. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLow multiples in marine shipping reflect cyclical earnings, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.57 with 91% implied volatility shows the market is hedging downside. | ||
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 133% FCF to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a 5.0% dividend with a safety component of 8.5. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays above 100% and the 5.0% dividend is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterOverall quality is only 4.7, below average, and gross margin scores 0.1/10, leaving little cushion if freight rates fall. | ||
The stock sits in an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) above the 200-day average with rising OBV, which the momentum notes call a buy opportunity. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and the $7.38 stop over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD component is only 2.9 and the price still sits near the lower end of the moving-average range, so the pullback may continue. | ||
Pangaea has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.26 versus $0.24, though the March 2026 quarter missed by 30%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus, including the report due in 12 days.
CounterThe 361% average surprise is distorted by tiny estimates (a $0.01 estimate in May), and the March miss shows results can disappoint.
Quarterly revenue reached about $187.1M versus about $156.7M a year earlier, roughly 19% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $204.9M.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at a double-digit YoY pace over the next four quarters.
CounterShipping revenue follows freight rates and is volatile; the March 2026 quarter was below the December 2025 quarter.
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 7.2x and a PEG of 0.14, and the $9.22 analyst target is 16.2% above the $7.94 price.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates toward the analyst target while forward P/E stays below 10x.
CounterLow multiples in marine shipping reflect cyclical earnings, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.57 with 91% implied volatility shows the market is hedging downside.
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 133% FCF to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a 5.0% dividend with a safety component of 8.5.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays above 100% and the 5.0% dividend is maintained.
CounterOverall quality is only 4.7, below average, and gross margin scores 0.1/10, leaving little cushion if freight rates fall.
The stock sits in an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) above the 200-day average with rising OBV, which the momentum notes call a buy opportunity.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and the $7.38 stop over the next two quarters.
CounterThe MACD component is only 2.9 and the price still sits near the lower end of the moving-average range, so the pullback may continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 133% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 5.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.96
Upside
+15.0%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.96 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Value at 8.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.3, Quality at 4.7, and Momentum at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Solid Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 8% YoY from roughly 19% currently.
- P3Deeply Discounted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 7.2x.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Dividend
Trip ifFCF to net income falls below 80% from current 133%.
- P5Uptrend Pullback Entry
Trip ifPrice falls below the $7.38 stop level from current $7.94.