Value
9.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
- ▸Attractively valued
PAGS · Why this verdict
Why PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 245% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 6.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $2,715,552 (0.111% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.43
- ▸High IV: 75%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 1190.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.18
Upside
+21.2%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.18 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Sentiment at 7.2, and Technical at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Growth at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.