Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
PAAS · Why this verdict
Why Pan American Silver (PAAS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pan American Silver combines a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat, 49% year-over-year revenue growth, and a PEG ratio of 0.08, making it one of the strongest fundamental profiles in the dataset, though sector concentration caps and a recent 7.4% gap-up create near-term entry timing risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A PEG ratio of 0.08 and forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x indicate the stock trades at a substantial discount to its growth rate, with analyst upside of 39% to the consensus price target of $61.55. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $58 within 12 months as the valuation gap to growth closes. | →Stable |
| CounterPEG ratios below 0.1 in commodities companies frequently reflect cyclical peak earnings rather than durable undervaluation; if commodity prices normalize, the denominator shrinks and the PEG expands rapidly. | ||
A recent 7.4% gap up leaves an unfilled gap below the current price at approximately $47.50, creating a technical risk that the stock pulls back to fill the gap before resuming any uptrend. Technical breakdown | Price holds above $47.00 (the gap level) over the next 3 months without a full retracement to pre-gap levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNot all gap-ups fill; in strongly trending stocks with improving fundamentals, gaps can act as support levels and the pullback risk may be overstated relative to the upside momentum. | ||
Pan American Silver carries a wide economic moat score of 9.0 out of 10, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and compounder-quality characteristics combining strong returns with strong growth, placing it in the top tier of the universe on business quality. Quality breakdown | The quality score remains above 7.5 and the moat score holds at 8.0 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterMoat designations for precious metals miners are highly contested; silver prices are the primary driver of returns, and cost advantages can erode quickly if mine grades decline or input costs rise. | ||
Revenue grew 49% year-over-year, placing Pan American Silver as an industry growth leader, supported by earnings growth components also at the maximum score of 10.0 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth in a precious metals miner is largely a function of silver and gold price movements rather than volume expansion; a commodity price reversal could cut revenue growth sharply with no operational offset. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.08 and forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x indicate the stock trades at a substantial discount to its growth rate, with analyst upside of 39% to the consensus price target of $61.55.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $58 within 12 months as the valuation gap to growth closes.
CounterPEG ratios below 0.1 in commodities companies frequently reflect cyclical peak earnings rather than durable undervaluation; if commodity prices normalize, the denominator shrinks and the PEG expands rapidly.
A recent 7.4% gap up leaves an unfilled gap below the current price at approximately $47.50, creating a technical risk that the stock pulls back to fill the gap before resuming any uptrend.
↓DeterioratingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above $47.00 (the gap level) over the next 3 months without a full retracement to pre-gap levels.
CounterNot all gap-ups fill; in strongly trending stocks with improving fundamentals, gaps can act as support levels and the pullback risk may be overstated relative to the upside momentum.
Pan American Silver carries a wide economic moat score of 9.0 out of 10, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and compounder-quality characteristics combining strong returns with strong growth, placing it in the top tier of the universe on business quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score remains above 7.5 and the moat score holds at 8.0 or higher over the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterMoat designations for precious metals miners are highly contested; silver prices are the primary driver of returns, and cost advantages can erode quickly if mine grades decline or input costs rise.
Revenue grew 49% year-over-year, placing Pan American Silver as an industry growth leader, supported by earnings growth components also at the maximum score of 10.0 out of 10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 20% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterStrong revenue growth in a precious metals miner is largely a function of silver and gold price movements rather than volume expansion; a commodity price reversal could cut revenue growth sharply with no operational offset.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.5 |
| ROA | 7.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 9.7 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $33
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.7 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.7) - hard block; Earnings in 6 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUM|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:2/3
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.16
Upside
+24.8%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.5
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.58>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 3.16.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Quality at 8.7, and Value at 8.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Peer rank at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.16 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat And Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in any single reporting period.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Deep Value Peg Ratio
Trip ifThe analyst consensus price target falls below $50, a decline of more than 18% from the current target of $61.55.
- P4Gap Up Pullback Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below $44 (the gap fill level) and closes below that level for 3 or more consecutive days.