Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
OXM · Why this verdict
Why Oxford Industries (OXM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.05, suggesting the market may be underpricing the company's earnings growth relative to peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain under 1.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the valuation gap holds. | →Stable |
| CounterSuch a low PEG alongside declining revenue growth suggests the growth estimate feeding the ratio may not be durable. | ||
Quality sits at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.0 floor), driven by thin FCF margins (1%) and the absence of a competitive moat, despite the company remaining FCF-positive. Quality breakdown | Quality score should recover above 4.0 and FCF margin should expand above 3% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThin margins and no moat in apparel retail tend to be structural rather than cyclical, making a quick recovery unlikely. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, a catalyst that has historically supported the stock despite otherwise weak quality metrics. Earnings | The company should continue beating consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance rather than genuine demand strength could reverse quickly, especially with weak momentum heading into the next print. | ||
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 2.1 (below the 4.5 bar), with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a flat moving-average slope. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistently weak momentum combined with high short interest (32%) could be an early warning of further downside. | ||
High short interest (32%), an elevated put/call ratio of 6.25, and high implied volatility (78%) point to substantial bearish positioning and expected price swings. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline below 20% and the put/call ratio should normalize below 2.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest could instead set up a short squeeze if an earnings beat forces bears to cover. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.05, suggesting the market may be underpricing the company's earnings growth relative to peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain under 1.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the valuation gap holds.
CounterSuch a low PEG alongside declining revenue growth suggests the growth estimate feeding the ratio may not be durable.
Quality sits at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.0 floor), driven by thin FCF margins (1%) and the absence of a competitive moat, despite the company remaining FCF-positive.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover above 4.0 and FCF margin should expand above 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterThin margins and no moat in apparel retail tend to be structural rather than cyclical, making a quick recovery unlikely.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, a catalyst that has historically supported the stock despite otherwise weak quality metrics.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterA beat streak built on conservative guidance rather than genuine demand strength could reverse quickly, especially with weak momentum heading into the next print.
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 2.1 (below the 4.5 bar), with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a flat moving-average slope.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterPersistently weak momentum combined with high short interest (32%) could be an early warning of further downside.
High short interest (32%), an elevated put/call ratio of 6.25, and high implied volatility (78%) point to substantial bearish positioning and expected price swings.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 20% and the put/call ratio should normalize below 2.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated short interest could instead set up a short squeeze if an earnings beat forces bears to cover.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oxford Industries trades at an attractive valuation with a strong recent earnings beat streak, but weak momentum, no competitive moat, and heavy bearish options positioning suggest the market has already priced in most of the company's near-term quality concerns.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 1%, FCF yield 2.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $92,250 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.3 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 32%
- ▸High IV: 96%
- ▸Above max pain $22
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 8.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.39
Upside
-4.2%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.7, Quality at 3.1, and Momentum at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x without a corresponding earnings increase.
- P2Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.5 or FCF margin falls below 0%.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Bearish Options Positioning Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 40% of float.
- P5Earnings Beat Streak Support
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.