Value
6.4/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.1 |
| p ocf | 8.7 |
- ▸P/OCF: 9.2x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
ORC · Why this verdict
Why Orchid Island Capital (ORC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 84%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.64
Upside
-3.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.55>1.3, MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 7.0, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Catalyst at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.