Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 48.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
OMDA · Why this verdict
Why Omada Health (OMDA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Omada Health is growing revenue 42% year-over-year, earning a perfect growth score, and passes the Rule of 40 test at 48. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterDigital-health growth rates of this magnitude often decelerate quickly as the company scales past early-adopter customers. | ||
The stock is technically overbought with RSI at 85, and late-cycle distribution risk is flagged since the 200-day MA slope has gone flat-to-negative even as price stays above it. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools back into the 40-70 range without a sharp price breakdown. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought conditions in a strong secular growth story can persist for extended periods without triggering a reversal, especially with a clean beat streak. | ||
Notable insider selling of $1,481,434 (0.111% of market cap) adds a bearish signal that corroborates the value-trap flags. Insider breakdown | Insider selling activity declines to less than $500,000 in the next 90-day window. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales at growth-stage healthcare companies are frequently pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to near-term company outlook. | ||
The stock has already surpassed its analyst price target, now showing -11.0% implied upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.73 as downside risk of 15% outweighs the negative upside. Warnings | Upside to price target recovers to a positive double-digit percentage. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with 220% average surprise could quickly justify analysts raising price targets, closing the gap from the price side rather than requiring a pullback. | ||
Omada has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 220%, reflecting consistent execution against low expectations. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 2 more consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistently massive earnings beats can reflect a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering, which risks a sharp reversal once guidance is finally set more aggressively. | ||
Omada Health is growing revenue 42% year-over-year, earning a perfect growth score, and passes the Rule of 40 test at 48.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 25% YoY over the next several quarters.
CounterDigital-health growth rates of this magnitude often decelerate quickly as the company scales past early-adopter customers.
The stock is technically overbought with RSI at 85, and late-cycle distribution risk is flagged since the 200-day MA slope has gone flat-to-negative even as price stays above it.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools back into the 40-70 range without a sharp price breakdown.
CounterOverbought conditions in a strong secular growth story can persist for extended periods without triggering a reversal, especially with a clean beat streak.
Notable insider selling of $1,481,434 (0.111% of market cap) adds a bearish signal that corroborates the value-trap flags.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity declines to less than $500,000 in the next 90-day window.
CounterInsider sales at growth-stage healthcare companies are frequently pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to near-term company outlook.
The stock has already surpassed its analyst price target, now showing -11.0% implied upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.73 as downside risk of 15% outweighs the negative upside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Upside to price target recovers to a positive double-digit percentage.
CounterA perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with 220% average surprise could quickly justify analysts raising price targets, closing the gap from the price side rather than requiring a pullback.
Omada has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 220%, reflecting consistent execution against low expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 2 more consecutive quarters.
CounterConsistently massive earnings beats can reflect a pattern of under-promising and over-delivering, which risks a sharp reversal once guidance is finally set more aggressively.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Omada Health is growing revenue rapidly with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but the stock is technically overbought, has already exceeded its price target, and notable insider selling adds a cautionary signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 1.2%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 48 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 96)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 96 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,445,488 (0.106% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.3 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.93
Upside
-13.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 2.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 42% pace.
- P2Overbought Late Cycle Risk
Trip ifRSI stays above 80 for more than 4 consecutive weeks while the price breaks below the 200-day moving average.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $3,000,000 in a single 90-day window, more than double the current $1,481,434.
- P4Target Reached Valuation Ceiling
Trip ifThe stock trades more than 20% above its analyst price target, worse than the current -11.0% upside.
- P5Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company's earnings surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.