Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
OIS · Why this verdict
Why Oil States International (OIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oil States trades at a low forward multiple with modest earnings improvement, but shrinking revenue, no competitive moat and heavy offshore concentration keep quality below the floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 12.1x and a PEG of 0.11, with analyst upside of 31% to the raw target. Valuation breakdown | The stock keeps a forward P/E near or below 15x while the price moves toward the $9.56 target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low PEG on collapsed earnings growth can be a trap, and coverage is light so targets may be stale. | ||
The Offshore Manufactured Products segment makes up 64.0% of the business, a high concentration risk tied to one end market. Bear case | Segment mix stays near 64% and results track offshore project cycles over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOffshore project awards can strengthen quickly and this segment's strength could lift total results rather than being only a risk. | ||
Revenue is declining about 5% (quarterly revenue $156.7M versus $165.4M a year earlier) and quality scores 3.0 with no competitive moat. Growth breakdown | Revenue stays flat to down and quality remains below the 4.0 floor. | →Stable |
| CounterNext-quarter revenue is estimated at $162.6M, and earnings growth of 10/10 suggests margins are recovering even as sales dip. | ||
EPS was $0.14 versus a $0.11 estimate last quarter with 2 beats, 0 misses and an average surprise of 13.75% over the last four quarters. Earnings | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates, including the report due in 6 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTwo of the four quarters were only inline and one posted -11.11% surprise, so the record is not a clean streak. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 2.4% per 30 days, and the drawdown is 41% from the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average while the average keeps rising. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution, and a 41% drawdown with technical score of 0.9 shows sellers still dominate. | ||
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 12.1x and a PEG of 0.11, with analyst upside of 31% to the raw target.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock keeps a forward P/E near or below 15x while the price moves toward the $9.56 target.
CounterA low PEG on collapsed earnings growth can be a trap, and coverage is light so targets may be stale.
The Offshore Manufactured Products segment makes up 64.0% of the business, a high concentration risk tied to one end market.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix stays near 64% and results track offshore project cycles over the next 12 months.
CounterOffshore project awards can strengthen quickly and this segment's strength could lift total results rather than being only a risk.
Revenue is declining about 5% (quarterly revenue $156.7M versus $165.4M a year earlier) and quality scores 3.0 with no competitive moat.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stays flat to down and quality remains below the 4.0 floor.
CounterNext-quarter revenue is estimated at $162.6M, and earnings growth of 10/10 suggests margins are recovering even as sales dip.
EPS was $0.14 versus a $0.11 estimate last quarter with 2 beats, 0 misses and an average surprise of 13.75% over the last four quarters.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates, including the report due in 6 days.
CounterTwo of the four quarters were only inline and one posted -11.11% surprise, so the record is not a clean streak.
The stock sits below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 2.4% per 30 days, and the drawdown is 41% from the 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average while the average keeps rising.
CounterFalling OBV shows volume distribution, and a 41% drawdown with technical score of 0.9 shows sellers still dominate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.75
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.27
Upside
+4.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.3<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.27.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.3, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Quality at 3.0, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $8.60, the current price, or forward P/E rises above 20x.
- P2Offshore Segment Concentration
Trip ifOffshore Manufactured Products share of the business falls below 50% from 64%.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth exceeds 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Modest Earnings Improvement
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 30-day change in the 200-day moving average falls below 0% from current +2.4%.