Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
OIS · Why this verdict
Why Oil States International (OIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Oil States trades cheaply, with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a very low PEG ratio of 0.07 flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while the stock re-rates upward. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-digit forward P/E in an oilfield services name often reflects the market pricing in cyclical earnings deterioration, not a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock shows capitulation risk with RSI at 27 and trading below its 200-day moving average, though the medium-term MA is still rising (+5.5% over 30 days). Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 while the 30-day MA slope stays positive. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI reading this low can also precede a deeper breakdown rather than a bounce, especially if selling pressure continues. | ||
Revenue is declining 9% year-over-year, consistent with the quality score sitting below the engine's floor (2.7 vs 4.0). Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterOilfield services revenue often lags the commodity cycle by several quarters, so a return to growth could take longer than typical turnarounds. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 6.00 signals heavy bearish options positioning against the stock. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls back below 2.0 as bearish hedging unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio this extreme could also reflect informed traders positioning ahead of a real negative catalyst, such as continued oil-price weakness. | ||
Despite the momentum gate failing at 2.8, below the 4.5 threshold, the asymmetry ratio of 5.06 reflects 37.6% upside to target against only 7.4% downside to stop. Reward-to-risk math | Upside to target stays above 25% while downside risk remains capped near 10% or less. | →Stable |
| CounterA favorable asymmetry ratio calculated against a failed momentum gate can be a value trap; the stock may keep falling before any reversion to the upside target. | ||
Oil States trades cheaply, with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a very low PEG ratio of 0.07 flagged as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while the stock re-rates upward.
CounterA single-digit forward P/E in an oilfield services name often reflects the market pricing in cyclical earnings deterioration, not a genuine bargain.
The stock shows capitulation risk with RSI at 27 and trading below its 200-day moving average, though the medium-term MA is still rising (+5.5% over 30 days).
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 while the 30-day MA slope stays positive.
CounterAn RSI reading this low can also precede a deeper breakdown rather than a bounce, especially if selling pressure continues.
Revenue is declining 9% year-over-year, consistent with the quality score sitting below the engine's floor (2.7 vs 4.0).
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters.
CounterOilfield services revenue often lags the commodity cycle by several quarters, so a return to growth could take longer than typical turnarounds.
An elevated put/call ratio of 6.00 signals heavy bearish options positioning against the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls back below 2.0 as bearish hedging unwinds.
CounterA put/call ratio this extreme could also reflect informed traders positioning ahead of a real negative catalyst, such as continued oil-price weakness.
Despite the momentum gate failing at 2.8, below the 4.5 threshold, the asymmetry ratio of 5.06 reflects 37.6% upside to target against only 7.4% downside to stop.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Upside to target stays above 25% while downside risk remains capped near 10% or less.
CounterA favorable asymmetry ratio calculated against a failed momentum gate can be a value trap; the stock may keep falling before any reversion to the upside target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oil States trades cheaply on a forward basis and shows a favorable risk/reward asymmetry, but a failed momentum gate, declining revenue, and heavy bearish options positioning point to near-term execution risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 173%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.48
Upside
+26.9%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Insider at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Quality at 2.7, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from the current 9.5x.
- P2Capitulation Momentum Risk
Trip ifRSI falls below 20 while the 30-day moving-average slope turns negative (below 0%).
- P3Declining Revenue Quality Gap
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -15% YoY from the current -9% pace.
- P4Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 8.00 from the current 6.00.
- P5Favorable Asymmetry Despite Momentum Fail
Trip ifDownside risk to stop-loss exceeds 15% while upside to target falls below 20%.