Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.99
- ▸Attractively valued
OBT · Why this verdict
Why Orange County Bancorp (OBT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Orange County Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, averaging a 16.9% surprise, while trading at an attractive 9.8x forward P/E and 0.98 PEG ratio. Bull case | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the 2026-07-29 report while the forward P/E stays below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterA regional bank with a 4-quarter perfect beat streak may simply be benefiting from a favorable rate environment that reverses if the Fed cuts rates, ending the earnings tailwind. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving the engine's asymmetry model showing -12.0% implied downside to that target, a negative -1.0 asymmetry ratio. Bear case | Analyst price targets should be revised upward within 2 quarters if the earnings beat streak and margin strength continue. | →Stable |
| CounterBanks that consistently beat estimates and trade at a discount P/E often see analyst targets raised rather than the rally stalling out at the old target. | ||
The stock has formed a bullish breakout — golden cross, trading above all moving averages, RSI 61 with bullish MACD — reflected in a strong 7.5 momentum score. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above all major moving averages and momentum should stay above 6.0 for at least the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBreakouts that coincide with a stock already at its analyst price target can be late-stage moves prone to reversal rather than the start of a new leg higher. | ||
The bank shows strong margins of 36% and a robust Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with superior ROE versus peers per the engine's peer ranking. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 30% and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to net interest margin compression if deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, which could erode this quality edge quickly. | ||
Orange County Bancorp has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, averaging a 16.9% surprise, while trading at an attractive 9.8x forward P/E and 0.98 PEG ratio.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the 2026-07-29 report while the forward P/E stays below 12x.
CounterA regional bank with a 4-quarter perfect beat streak may simply be benefiting from a favorable rate environment that reverses if the Fed cuts rates, ending the earnings tailwind.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving the engine's asymmetry model showing -12.0% implied downside to that target, a negative -1.0 asymmetry ratio.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be revised upward within 2 quarters if the earnings beat streak and margin strength continue.
CounterBanks that consistently beat estimates and trade at a discount P/E often see analyst targets raised rather than the rally stalling out at the old target.
The stock has formed a bullish breakout — golden cross, trading above all moving averages, RSI 61 with bullish MACD — reflected in a strong 7.5 momentum score.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above all major moving averages and momentum should stay above 6.0 for at least the next 2 quarters.
CounterBreakouts that coincide with a stock already at its analyst price target can be late-stage moves prone to reversal rather than the start of a new leg higher.
The bank shows strong margins of 36% and a robust Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with superior ROE versus peers per the engine's peer ranking.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 30% and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to net interest margin compression if deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, which could erode this quality edge quickly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Orange County Bancorp combines an attractive valuation with a perfect earnings beat streak and strong quality metrics, though the stock has already reached its analyst price target, capping the near-term risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.09
Upside
-8.4%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 4.8, Sentiment at 5.4, and Growth at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Attractive Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the 2026-07-29 report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target stays below the current price for 2 consecutive quarters without an upward revision.
- P3Bullish Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice closes back below the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, invalidating the breakout.
- P4Strong Quality High Roe
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% or the Piotroski F-Score drops below 6 for 2 consecutive quarters.