Value
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| p ocf | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 19.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
NXRT · Why this verdict
Why NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 37%, FCF yield 6.2%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 0.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $195,987 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 120%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 731.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.77
Upside
-8.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.0, Technical at 5.7, and Insider at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Value at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.