Value
2.7/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
NXP · Why this verdict
Why Nuveen Select Tax Free Income P (NXP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NXP is a tax-free income fund with very high margins, low risk and a 4.9% dividend, but it trades below its 200-day average after a death cross and has almost no room left to the near-term resistance target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality notes cite strong margins of 79% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting stable income generation. Quality breakdown | Margins stay near 79% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE (1.2/10) and ROA (1.7/10) are weak, so high margins do not translate into strong returns on capital. | ||
The fund pays a 4.9% dividend with a dividend safety component of 5.5, providing steady income while the price stays range-bound. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend yield holds near 4.9% through the next four distributions. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5/10 with 0.5 confidence, and a distribution cut would remove the main reason to hold. | ||
The risk score is 9.7/10, driven by top scores for beta, volatility and short interest, making this a low-risk holding. Risk | The risk score stays above 8 as price volatility remains subdued. | →Stable |
| CounterScores are based on a small $0.8B market cap with 0.8 confidence, and thin liquidity could widen drawdowns in a rate shock. | ||
Despite a death cross, MACD is improving and RSI is 54, which points to a recovery setup rather than continued decline. Chart pattern detection | Price moves back above the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling OBV signals volume distribution and the price is below a flat 200-day average, so the death cross may still resolve lower. | ||
At $13.10 the price is only 3.7% below the $13.58 resistance target, against 2.9% downside to the $12.72 stop, so upside is thin. Upside pct | Price stays between the $12.72 stop and $13.58 resistance unless the trend breaks out. | →Stable |
| CounterResistance levels can break, and with a 4.9% dividend total return could exceed the small price gap. | ||
Quality notes cite strong margins of 79% and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting stable income generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay near 79% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterROE (1.2/10) and ROA (1.7/10) are weak, so high margins do not translate into strong returns on capital.
The fund pays a 4.9% dividend with a dividend safety component of 5.5, providing steady income while the price stays range-bound.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend yield holds near 4.9% through the next four distributions.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5/10 with 0.5 confidence, and a distribution cut would remove the main reason to hold.
The risk score is 9.7/10, driven by top scores for beta, volatility and short interest, making this a low-risk holding.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- The risk score stays above 8 as price volatility remains subdued.
CounterScores are based on a small $0.8B market cap with 0.8 confidence, and thin liquidity could widen drawdowns in a rate shock.
Despite a death cross, MACD is improving and RSI is 54, which points to a recovery setup rather than continued decline.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price moves back above the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 over the next two quarters.
CounterFalling OBV signals volume distribution and the price is below a flat 200-day average, so the death cross may still resolve lower.
At $13.10 the price is only 3.7% below the $13.58 resistance target, against 2.9% downside to the $12.72 stop, so upside is thin.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price stays between the $12.72 stop and $13.58 resistance unless the trend breaks out.
CounterResistance levels can break, and with a 4.9% dividend total return could exceed the small price gap.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 79%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $300,433 (0.036% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.8; weakest: Value at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.8, Quality at 6.5, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Value at 2.7, Peer rank at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins
Trip ifReported margins fall below 60% from current 79%.
- P2Steady Income Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 4.0% from current 4.9% due to a distribution cut.
- P3Low Volatility Risk Profile
Trip ifRisk score falls below 7.0 from current 9.7.
- P4Recovery After Death Cross
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 from current 54 while price stays below the 200-day average.
- P5Limited Near Term Upside
Trip ifPrice rises above $14.00, more than 6% above the current $13.10 price.