Value
10.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
NXG · Why this verdict
Why 733085 (NXG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NXG, an asset-management vehicle with a 14.6% dividend and attractive P/E, falls below the $400M market-cap minimum ($362M) and has zero reported margins and weak momentum, so it sits outside the investable universe.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 0.9 with zero gross, operating and net margin components, a 0/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Reported margins appear and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterZero margins are likely a data artifact for a fund-like vehicle, since the P/E scores 10.0, so the low quality may not reflect real business weakness. | ||
Market cap of $362M is below the $400M minimum, so the stock is not in the investable universe regardless of other scores. Bear case | Market cap rises above $400M, bringing the stock into the investable universe within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe shortfall is about 10%, so a moderate price gain would clear the threshold and make this pillar moot. | ||
The dividend yield is 14.6% with a dividend safety score of 9.0, the strongest dimension in the profile. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained and dividend safety stays above 7.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 14.6% yield is unusually high and may signal market doubt about its sustainability, and dividend confidence is only 0.25. | ||
Momentum is 3.1, below the 4.5 gate, with price below the 200-day average and a volume surge of 3.3x on a selloff, but the 200-day average is still rising at +3.0% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and a 3.3x volume surge on a selloff suggest distribution rather than a routine pullback. | ||
Insiders sold $57,130 (0.016% of market cap) in 2 sales with no buys in 90 days, a bearish signal of low materiality. Insider transaction read | Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap through the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe sales are tiny relative to market cap and likely routine, so the bearish label overstates the signal. | ||
Quality is 0.9 with zero gross, operating and net margin components, a 0/9 Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Reported margins appear and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterZero margins are likely a data artifact for a fund-like vehicle, since the P/E scores 10.0, so the low quality may not reflect real business weakness.
Market cap of $362M is below the $400M minimum, so the stock is not in the investable universe regardless of other scores.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Market cap rises above $400M, bringing the stock into the investable universe within 12 months.
CounterThe shortfall is about 10%, so a moderate price gain would clear the threshold and make this pillar moot.
The dividend yield is 14.6% with a dividend safety score of 9.0, the strongest dimension in the profile.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained and dividend safety stays above 7.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA 14.6% yield is unusually high and may signal market doubt about its sustainability, and dividend confidence is only 0.25.
Momentum is 3.1, below the 4.5 gate, with price below the 200-day average and a volume surge of 3.3x on a selloff, but the 200-day average is still rising at +3.0% over 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and a 3.3x volume surge on a selloff suggest distribution rather than a routine pullback.
Insiders sold $57,130 (0.016% of market cap) in 2 sales with no buys in 90 days, a bearish signal of low materiality.
↑ImprovingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap through the next 12 months.
CounterThe sales are tiny relative to market cap and likely routine, so the bearish label overstates the signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $497,953 (0.137% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.8 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 15.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $363M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Value at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Momentum at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Market Cap Below Universe Minimum
Trip ifMarket cap stays below $400M for 12 months.
- P2High Dividend Yield Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 6.0.
- P3Quality Floor No Reported Margins
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $46.87 stop level, more than 5% under $49.36.
- P5Minor Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1% of market cap in any 90-day window.