Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
NWSA · Why this verdict
Why News (NWSA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
News Corporation shows excellent cash conversion, a solid earnings beat record and steady revenue growth, but the price sits within 2% of the analyst target with roughly 9% downside, so reward-to-risk is thin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
News Corp has beaten or matched EPS estimates in the last 4 quarters (3 beats, 1 inline) with an average surprise of 20.1%, most recently $0.35 versus $0.23. Earnings | EPS continues to meet or beat consensus, including the report due in 11 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTwo of the four surprises were under 7%, so the average is inflated by one large beat and a miss is plausible. | ||
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 182% FCF to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores only 3.2/10 and ROE 2.7/10, so strong cash conversion sits on a thin profit base. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $2.337B versus about $2.109B a year earlier, roughly 10.8% YoY growth. Revenue quarters | Revenue keeps growing at a mid-to-high single-digit or better YoY pace through the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue is seasonal and uneven (the September 2023 quarter was $2.499B, above recent quarters), so growth may not be as durable as the latest quarter suggests. | ||
At $30.735 the stock is only 2.0% below the $31.35 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.0%, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.22 and little room to add. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise meaningfully, or the price pulls back toward the stop zone before reward-to-risk improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets may be stale, so a higher target after upcoming earnings could quickly restore upside. | ||
News Corp has beaten or matched EPS estimates in the last 4 quarters (3 beats, 1 inline) with an average surprise of 20.1%, most recently $0.35 versus $0.23.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to meet or beat consensus, including the report due in 11 days.
CounterTwo of the four surprises were under 7%, so the average is inflated by one large beat and a miss is plausible.
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 182% FCF to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterNet margin scores only 3.2/10 and ROE 2.7/10, so strong cash conversion sits on a thin profit base.
Quarterly revenue reached about $2.337B versus about $2.109B a year earlier, roughly 10.8% YoY growth.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at a mid-to-high single-digit or better YoY pace through the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue is seasonal and uneven (the September 2023 quarter was $2.499B, above recent quarters), so growth may not be as durable as the latest quarter suggests.
At $30.735 the stock is only 2.0% below the $31.35 analyst target while downside to the stop is 9.0%, giving a reward-to-risk of 0.22 and little room to add.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise meaningfully, or the price pulls back toward the stop zone before reward-to-risk improves.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets may be stale, so a higher target after upcoming earnings could quickly restore upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 5.0 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 182% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 3.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.39
Upside
+7.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.39 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.1, Technical at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Insider at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income falls below 80% from current 182%.
- P3Modest Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 3% YoY from roughly 10.8% currently.
- P4Limited Upside Near Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $35, more than 14% above the current price.