Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
NWBI · Why this verdict
Why Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Northwest Bancshares beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, and shows strong momentum with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, but loan portfolio concentration in real estate lending and an unsafe dividend yield flag material risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan portfolio is concentrated in residential and commercial real estate lending, which is the single largest concentration risk flagged at the high level, exposing the bank to regional real estate market cycles and interest rate sensitivity on its loan book. Bear case | Non-performing loan ratio remains below 1.5% of total loans for the next 4 quarters, confirming credit quality holds despite the concentration. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional banks by nature concentrate in local markets, and a well-underwritten real estate book can be less risky than a diversified but poorly-managed commercial loan portfolio, making concentration alone an insufficient risk measure. | ||
Northwest Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, indicating the market is significantly underpricing the company's earnings growth rate relative to its current valuation, particularly for a regional bank with strong operating margins of 21%. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E re-rates toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth becomes more visible, lifting the stock price above $16. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks trade at low P/E ratios for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, rate risk, and regulatory capital requirements, so a low P/E may reflect appropriate pricing of these risks rather than a valuation gap. | ||
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, and the growth score of 8.2/10 signals earnings momentum that is accelerating above what the current valuation implies. Earnings | EPS surprise remains above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat trajectory at a meaningful rate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOne miss of 5.94% in October 2025 suggests the beat streak is not perfectly reliable, and a regional bank with loan portfolio concentration is exposed to credit quality deterioration that can abruptly end earnings growth. | ||
A golden cross, RSI of 59, bullish MACD, price above all moving averages, and rising on-balance volume all confirm a technical breakout setup that historically precedes sustained price appreciation. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above $16 within 6 months as institutional momentum players respond to the confirmed breakout pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is already within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and analyst targets suggest limited further upside of negative 10.3%, meaning the technical breakout may be late-stage rather than early-stage. | ||
The loan portfolio is concentrated in residential and commercial real estate lending, which is the single largest concentration risk flagged at the high level, exposing the bank to regional real estate market cycles and interest rate sensitivity on its loan book.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-performing loan ratio remains below 1.5% of total loans for the next 4 quarters, confirming credit quality holds despite the concentration.
CounterRegional banks by nature concentrate in local markets, and a well-underwritten real estate book can be less risky than a diversified but poorly-managed commercial loan portfolio, making concentration alone an insufficient risk measure.
Northwest Bancshares trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.18, indicating the market is significantly underpricing the company's earnings growth rate relative to its current valuation, particularly for a regional bank with strong operating margins of 21%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E re-rates toward 12x within 12 months as earnings growth becomes more visible, lifting the stock price above $16.
CounterRegional banks trade at low P/E ratios for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, rate risk, and regulatory capital requirements, so a low P/E may reflect appropriate pricing of these risks rather than a valuation gap.
The bank beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, and the growth score of 8.2/10 signals earnings momentum that is accelerating above what the current valuation implies.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat trajectory at a meaningful rate.
CounterOne miss of 5.94% in October 2025 suggests the beat streak is not perfectly reliable, and a regional bank with loan portfolio concentration is exposed to credit quality deterioration that can abruptly end earnings growth.
A golden cross, RSI of 59, bullish MACD, price above all moving averages, and rising on-balance volume all confirm a technical breakout setup that historically precedes sustained price appreciation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $16 within 6 months as institutional momentum players respond to the confirmed breakout pattern.
CounterThe stock is already within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and analyst targets suggest limited further upside of negative 10.3%, meaning the technical breakout may be late-stage rather than early-stage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=4)
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $24,975 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.57
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.22
Upside
-6.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.6; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Value at 8.0, and Momentum at 7.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, Quality at 5.4, and Technical at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without earnings estimates rising by at least 10%, or the stock price falls below $12.
- P2Earnings Beat And Growth Profile
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Real Estate Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifNon-performing loans rise above 2% of the total loan portfolio in any reported quarter.
- P4Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and stays below for more than 15 trading days.