Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
NVST · Why this verdict
Why Envista Holdings (NVST) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Envista Holdings has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.6%, generates free cash flow at 320% of net income, and carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, though geographic concentration in North America and thin price-to-upside margin limit immediate re-entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Envista beaten EPS estimates by 15% or more in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 15.6%, indicating that management is consistently delivering results materially ahead of what analysts model. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise remains above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat pattern at a meaningful margin. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConsistent 15% beats could reflect management guiding analyst expectations very conservatively rather than genuine operational outperformance, which would be a less durable tailwind. | ||
Envista converts 320% of net income to free cash flow, reflecting excellent working capital management and low capital expenditure requirements relative to reported earnings, which provides financial flexibility for debt reduction or shareholder returns. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion of 320% may temporarily spike from deferred capex or favorable working capital timing that reverses in future quarters, overstating the sustainable quality of earnings. | ||
51% of revenue is concentrated in North America, and this geographic concentration is flagged as a high concentration risk in the company's own filings, leaving the business exposed to North American demand cycles and regulatory shifts. Bear case | International revenue grows to represent at least 55% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing the single-region concentration below 45%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNorth America is a stable, high-margin market for dental and medical instrument products, and domestic revenue concentration is not inherently more risky than global diversification when the home market is the largest and most profitable. | ||
The company relies on sole or limited source suppliers for critical inputs, which creates operational risk if any single supplier experiences disruption, potentially delaying product delivery and damaging customer relationships. Bear case | The company announces diversification of at least 1 critical sole-source supply relationship, reducing the number of sole-source dependencies by at least 20%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSole-source supplier relationships in medical devices are common and often locked in by regulatory approval requirements, meaning the risk is well-understood and managed through contractual protections and safety stock. | ||
Envista beaten EPS estimates by 15% or more in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 15.6%, indicating that management is consistently delivering results materially ahead of what analysts model.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat pattern at a meaningful margin.
CounterConsistent 15% beats could reflect management guiding analyst expectations very conservatively rather than genuine operational outperformance, which would be a less durable tailwind.
Envista converts 320% of net income to free cash flow, reflecting excellent working capital management and low capital expenditure requirements relative to reported earnings, which provides financial flexibility for debt reduction or shareholder returns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income for the next 4 quarters, confirming the cash generation quality is durable.
CounterFree cash flow conversion of 320% may temporarily spike from deferred capex or favorable working capital timing that reverses in future quarters, overstating the sustainable quality of earnings.
51% of revenue is concentrated in North America, and this geographic concentration is flagged as a high concentration risk in the company's own filings, leaving the business exposed to North American demand cycles and regulatory shifts.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows to represent at least 55% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing the single-region concentration below 45%.
CounterNorth America is a stable, high-margin market for dental and medical instrument products, and domestic revenue concentration is not inherently more risky than global diversification when the home market is the largest and most profitable.
The company relies on sole or limited source suppliers for critical inputs, which creates operational risk if any single supplier experiences disruption, potentially delaying product delivery and damaging customer relationships.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The company announces diversification of at least 1 critical sole-source supply relationship, reducing the number of sole-source dependencies by at least 20%.
CounterSole-source supplier relationships in medical devices are common and often locked in by regulatory approval requirements, meaning the risk is well-understood and managed through contractual protections and safety stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.7 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 1.2 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 320% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.85
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Insider at 7.2, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Peer rank at 5.3, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.85 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, signaling the beat streak is narrowing.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Geographic Concentration North America
Trip ifNorth America revenue concentration rises above 60% of total revenue in any reported quarter.
- P4Sole Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifA sole-source supplier disruption results in product shipment delays exceeding 30 days for any major product line, as disclosed in a quarterly filing.