Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
NSP · Why this verdict
Why Insperity (NSP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business has no competitive moat and very thin profitability, with operating margin scoring 0.1, giving a quality score of 1.5. Quality breakdown | Quality should recover toward the 4.0 floor as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity, return on assets, gross margin and net margin all score 0.0, so there is no sign of improvement yet. | ||
EPS beat estimates in the last two quarters, $0.34 against $0.32 and $1.31 against $1.23, after two earlier misses that included a loss of $0.60 per share. Earnings track record | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 29 October 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings are very uneven, with a -$0.60 loss and a -$0.20 loss in the two quarters before the beats, and the average surprise is -51%. | ||
Price of $54.44 is 19.2% above the $43.99 analyst target, with about 7% downside to the $50.63 stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price if earnings hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative reward-to-risk of -1.3 and an overbought RSI of 71 leave the stock exposed to a sharp pullback if results disappoint. | ||
Rising on-balance volume, a position above the 200-day average and a bullish MACD give a momentum score of 7.3. Momentum breakdown | Price should stay above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5. | →Stable |
| CounterThe note flags an overbought RSI of 71, and the bollinger score of 0.0 shows price is at the top of its range. | ||
The dividend yields 4.4% with a dividend safety score of 5.8, which supports holders while earnings recover. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained and dividend safety should hold at 5 or above. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith uneven earnings and thin margins, a 4.4% yield may not be covered if quarterly results turn negative again. | ||
The business has no competitive moat and very thin profitability, with operating margin scoring 0.1, giving a quality score of 1.5.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should recover toward the 4.0 floor as margins improve.
CounterReturn on equity, return on assets, gross margin and net margin all score 0.0, so there is no sign of improvement yet.
EPS beat estimates in the last two quarters, $0.34 against $0.32 and $1.31 against $1.23, after two earlier misses that included a loss of $0.60 per share.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 29 October 2026 report.
CounterEarnings are very uneven, with a -$0.60 loss and a -$0.20 loss in the two quarters before the beats, and the average surprise is -51%.
Price of $54.44 is 19.2% above the $43.99 analyst target, with about 7% downside to the $50.63 stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price if earnings hold.
CounterA negative reward-to-risk of -1.3 and an overbought RSI of 71 leave the stock exposed to a sharp pullback if results disappoint.
Rising on-balance volume, a position above the 200-day average and a bullish MACD give a momentum score of 7.3.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stay above its 200-day average with momentum above 5.5.
CounterThe note flags an overbought RSI of 71, and the bollinger score of 0.0 shows price is at the top of its range.
The dividend yields 4.4% with a dividend safety score of 5.8, which supports holders while earnings recover.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained and dividend safety should hold at 5 or above.
CounterWith uneven earnings and thin margins, a 4.4% yield may not be covered if quarterly results turn negative again.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.28
Upside
-14.8%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($2.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of -1.28.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Growth at 2.9, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Recovery After Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Far Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $50.63 stop, a drop of more than 7% from $54.44.
- P3Low Quality Thin Margins
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.0 from the current 1.5.
- P4Strong Accumulation Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 7.3.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.8.