Value
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
NSP · Why this verdict
Why Insperity (NSP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached and moved past its analyst price target, with upside now at roughly -26.0%, indicating the near-term reward from current levels is limited. Bear case | Analyst targets should be raised meaningfully, or price should pull back, to reopen a genuine margin of upside over the next couple of quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA staffing company's analyst targets can lag reality in either direction, and the -26% gap may reflect stale targets set before recent earnings rather than a durable overvaluation. | ||
The engine's quality score sits below its minimum floor, at 1.6 versus the required 4.0, reflecting weak fundamental quality that triggers the exit-position action. Warnings | The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor if underlying margins and moat characteristics improve over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStaffing companies are inherently asset-light, cyclical businesses whose quality metrics often score poorly on frameworks built for capital-intensive or moat-driven industries, without that implying imminent business failure. | ||
The engine's risk/reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.7, indicating that modeled downside currently outweighs modeled upside. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and climb back above the 1.5 threshold if the risk/reward setup improves over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative asymmetry ratio driven by a target-reached upside estimate can flip quickly to positive with only a modest downward move in price, without any change in the underlying business. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, adding roughly 333,000 shares recently, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish quantitative flags. Insider | Insider buying should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next 90 days if insiders see genuine value at current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider purchases at a staffing company can reflect routine compensation-related or scheduled transactions rather than a high-conviction signal about undervaluation. | ||
The company has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, adding to the case for caution alongside the quality and risk/reward flags. Earnings | The quarterly beat rate should recover above 50% over the next several reports if execution stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1-of-4 beat rate in a cyclically sensitive staffing business can reflect a broader labor-market slowdown rather than company-specific execution failure, and could reverse quickly with a macro improvement. | ||
The stock has already reached and moved past its analyst price target, with upside now at roughly -26.0%, indicating the near-term reward from current levels is limited.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised meaningfully, or price should pull back, to reopen a genuine margin of upside over the next couple of quarters.
CounterA staffing company's analyst targets can lag reality in either direction, and the -26% gap may reflect stale targets set before recent earnings rather than a durable overvaluation.
The engine's quality score sits below its minimum floor, at 1.6 versus the required 4.0, reflecting weak fundamental quality that triggers the exit-position action.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor if underlying margins and moat characteristics improve over the next several quarters.
CounterStaffing companies are inherently asset-light, cyclical businesses whose quality metrics often score poorly on frameworks built for capital-intensive or moat-driven industries, without that implying imminent business failure.
The engine's risk/reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.7, indicating that modeled downside currently outweighs modeled upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and climb back above the 1.5 threshold if the risk/reward setup improves over the next few months.
CounterA negative asymmetry ratio driven by a target-reached upside estimate can flip quickly to positive with only a modest downward move in price, without any change in the underlying business.
Insiders have been net buyers, adding roughly 333,000 shares recently, a bullish signal that runs counter to the bearish quantitative flags.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next 90 days if insiders see genuine value at current levels.
CounterInsider purchases at a staffing company can reflect routine compensation-related or scheduled transactions rather than a high-conviction signal about undervaluation.
The company has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, adding to the case for caution alongside the quality and risk/reward flags.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The quarterly beat rate should recover above 50% over the next several reports if execution stabilizes.
CounterA 1-of-4 beat rate in a cyclically sensitive staffing business can reflect a broader labor-market slowdown rather than company-specific execution failure, and could reverse quickly with a macro improvement.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NSP shows insiders buying into weakness, but the stock already trades well below its analyst target with quality scoring below the engine's floor, a negative asymmetry ratio, and a recent string of earnings misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
9.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $10,806,886 (0.640% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 5.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.57
Upside
-23.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Insider at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 9.0, Value at 8.1, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Growth at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside to analyst target rises above 10% from the current -26.0%, reopening room to re-rate higher.
- P2Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.6, clearing the engine's quality floor.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Risk Reward
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio turns positive and rises above 1.5 from the current -1.7, restoring a favorable risk/reward setup.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifNet insider share count falls below 0 over the next 90 days, reversing the current +333,000 share bullish signal.
- P5Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifQuarterly EPS beat rate rises above 50% over the next 4 quarters, reversing the current 1-of-4 beat streak.