Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
NRDS · Why this verdict
Why NerdWallet (NRDS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens with an estimated 32% margin of safety versus intrinsic value, suggesting a meaningful valuation cushion. Bull case | The margin of safety should be realized through price appreciation or should persist over the next 12 months if the valuation gap is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterA margin-of-safety estimate can overstate the cushion if it does not fully price in continued high leverage or further estimate cuts following recent earnings misses. | ||
The business shows excellent fundamental quality, converting 135% of net income into free cash flow and posting a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 8/9 level and FCF conversion should stay strong over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong cash conversion metrics can mask a maturing, low-growth core business, and the Rule of 40 currently fails, showing growth and margins together fall short of that healthy-growth benchmark. | ||
The stock is technically overbought within what the data frames as a bear-market rally, with RSI at 74 while remaining below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average if the current rally is more than a temporary bounce. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought reading inside a labeled bear rally is exactly the setup that historically precedes a resumption of the downtrend rather than a genuine reversal. | ||
The risk data flags a short-squeeze setup, with 17% of float sold short against a business quality score of 7.5, suggesting shorts may be vulnerable to a positive catalyst. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline meaningfully or the stock should experience a sharp upward move if a squeeze materializes over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterA high short interest against a fundamentally decent business can also persist for a long time if shorts are correctly targeting a slowing growth story rather than a mispriced quality name. | ||
The company has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubts about the reliability of forward estimates. Earnings | The quarterly beat rate should recover above 50% over the next several reports if execution is stabilizing. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1-of-4 beat rate against a backdrop of otherwise strong cash-flow quality could reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine deterioration in the underlying business. | ||
The stock screens with an estimated 32% margin of safety versus intrinsic value, suggesting a meaningful valuation cushion.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The margin of safety should be realized through price appreciation or should persist over the next 12 months if the valuation gap is genuine.
CounterA margin-of-safety estimate can overstate the cushion if it does not fully price in continued high leverage or further estimate cuts following recent earnings misses.
The business shows excellent fundamental quality, converting 135% of net income into free cash flow and posting a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 8/9 level and FCF conversion should stay strong over the next several quarters.
CounterStrong cash conversion metrics can mask a maturing, low-growth core business, and the Rule of 40 currently fails, showing growth and margins together fall short of that healthy-growth benchmark.
The stock is technically overbought within what the data frames as a bear-market rally, with RSI at 74 while remaining below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average if the current rally is more than a temporary bounce.
CounterAn overbought reading inside a labeled bear rally is exactly the setup that historically precedes a resumption of the downtrend rather than a genuine reversal.
The risk data flags a short-squeeze setup, with 17% of float sold short against a business quality score of 7.5, suggesting shorts may be vulnerable to a positive catalyst.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully or the stock should experience a sharp upward move if a squeeze materializes over the next few months.
CounterA high short interest against a fundamentally decent business can also persist for a long time if shorts are correctly targeting a slowing growth story rather than a mispriced quality name.
The company has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubts about the reliability of forward estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The quarterly beat rate should recover above 50% over the next several reports if execution is stabilizing.
CounterA 1-of-4 beat rate against a backdrop of otherwise strong cash-flow quality could reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine deterioration in the underlying business.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NRDS pairs high fundamental quality and a meaningful margin of safety with a confirmed technical downtrend, a large short interest that sets up a potential squeeze, and a recent run of earnings misses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 135% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 17 (fail)
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 17% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.68
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Technical at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Insider at 7.5, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Catalyst at 2.5, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 from the current 8/9, or FCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80% from the current 135%.
- P2Margin Of Safety Valuation
Trip ifMargin of safety compresses below 10% from the current 32%, eroding the valuation cushion.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Bear Rally
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above it for 2 consecutive weeks, reversing the confirmed downtrend at RSI 74.
- P4Short Squeeze Setup Potential
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float from the current 17%, removing the short-squeeze setup.
- P5Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifQuarterly EPS beat rate rises above 50% over the next 4 quarters, reversing the current 1-of-4 beat streak.