Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.67
NOK · Why this verdict
Why Nokia Corporation Sponsored (NOK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nokia offers excellent cash conversion at 201% of net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, but its forward P/E of 30.4x is expensive for a slow-growing telecom equipment company trading above analyst consensus targets with below-average peer rankings.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 30.4x for Nokia is expensive relative to the slow growth profile with revenue growing at only low single digits, and the stock is already approximately 12.6% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning buyers are paying a premium to fair value. Valuation breakdown | Analyst consensus price target rises above $17 within 12 months to justify the current price level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNokia's transition toward software and services in 5G infrastructure may justify a higher valuation multiple than hardware-focused peers if recurring revenue mix improves materially. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 places Nokia in the top tier of financial health across all profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency criteria, indicating the business is fundamentally sound even if growth is limited. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next 12 months, confirming sustained operational and balance sheet discipline. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores for large-cap technology hardware companies can remain high even during periods of business model transition, masking strategic risks that are not captured in the score's backward-looking inputs. | ||
Nokia converts 201% of its net income into free cash flow, a very high ratio that indicates the company is generating substantially more cash than its reported earnings suggest, which supports the dividend and potential buybacks. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% over the next 12 months, confirming sustained cash generation quality. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in telecom equipment companies can reflect delayed capital investment cycles rather than structural cash generation strength, and it may normalize as Nokia invests in next-generation technology. | ||
Nokia ranks in the bottom quartile of its technology peers on both value and quality composite scores, suggesting that within the communication equipment sector, investors have better options even if Nokia's absolute metrics are sound. Peer-rank breakdown | Nokia improves its peer-relative quality ranking above the 50th percentile within 12 months through margin expansion or growth acceleration. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPeer ranking weakness may reflect temporary cost pressures during Nokia's restructuring phase rather than a permanent competitive disadvantage in the 5G equipment market. | ||
A forward P/E of 30.4x for Nokia is expensive relative to the slow growth profile with revenue growing at only low single digits, and the stock is already approximately 12.6% above analyst consensus price targets, meaning buyers are paying a premium to fair value.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $17 within 12 months to justify the current price level.
CounterNokia's transition toward software and services in 5G infrastructure may justify a higher valuation multiple than hardware-focused peers if recurring revenue mix improves materially.
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 places Nokia in the top tier of financial health across all profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency criteria, indicating the business is fundamentally sound even if growth is limited.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next 12 months, confirming sustained operational and balance sheet discipline.
CounterPiotroski scores for large-cap technology hardware companies can remain high even during periods of business model transition, masking strategic risks that are not captured in the score's backward-looking inputs.
Nokia converts 201% of its net income into free cash flow, a very high ratio that indicates the company is generating substantially more cash than its reported earnings suggest, which supports the dividend and potential buybacks.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% over the next 12 months, confirming sustained cash generation quality.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in telecom equipment companies can reflect delayed capital investment cycles rather than structural cash generation strength, and it may normalize as Nokia invests in next-generation technology.
Nokia ranks in the bottom quartile of its technology peers on both value and quality composite scores, suggesting that within the communication equipment sector, investors have better options even if Nokia's absolute metrics are sound.
↑ImprovingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Nokia improves its peer-relative quality ranking above the 50th percentile within 12 months through margin expansion or growth acceleration.
CounterPeer ranking weakness may reflect temporary cost pressures during Nokia's restructuring phase rather than a permanent competitive disadvantage in the 5G equipment market.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.1 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 165% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 57%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.47
Upside
+37.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.6, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Expensive Valuation At Consensus
Trip ifPrice rises above $18 while analyst consensus target remains below $16.
- P3Perfect Piotroski Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any annual financial update.
- P4Weak Peer Relative Standing
Trip ifPeer-relative quality ranking falls below the 25th percentile for 2 consecutive quarters.