Value
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 142.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.40
NNDM · Why this verdict
Why Nano Dimension (NNDM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nano Dimension is in a confirmed downtrend with weak quality (2.8, below the 4.0 floor), cash burn and a poor earnings-surprise record, with a very high forward P/E of 141x and no analyst target offering a valuation anchor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.8, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and operating margin components at 0.0, free cash flow at negative 1% of revenue and a gross margin component of only 3.8. Quality breakdown | Operating margin turns positive and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA moat component of 6.5, a Piotroski component of 6.7 and a current ratio of 5 suggest the balance sheet is sound and cash burn is small at -1% of revenue. | ||
Momentum is 2.5, below the 4.5 gate, with price below all moving averages, a 200-day slope of -1.5% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume and a death cross that hard-blocks entry. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA shallow -1.5% 200-day slope and RSI at 31 suggest the downtrend is mild and near oversold, so a reversal is plausible. | ||
Earnings history shows 1 beat and 3 misses in the last 4 reported quarters with an average surprise of -160%, and earnings are flagged as a concern. Avg surprise pct | EPS meets or beats consensus at the report due in 18 days and the beat count improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 4-quarter history listed dates from 2020 to 2022, so the surprise average is stale and may not reflect current earnings reliability. | ||
Forward P/E is 141.0x with a PEG of 1.39, so the stock is not cheap on forward earnings despite a trading price of $1.41. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings rise enough to bring forward P/E below 50x within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEV/EBITDA and price-to-sales components score 10.0 and 7.0, so the stock looks inexpensive on enterprise value and sales, and the forward P/E is based on small earnings. | ||
Take-profit is the resistance level of $1.61, 14.2% above the $1.41 price against 4.3% downside to the $1.35 stop, with no analyst target and upside flagged as exhausted. Take profit | Price breaks above the $1.61 resistance level while holding above the $1.35 support. | →Stable |
| CounterResistance-based targets are technical, not fundamental, and Bollinger and support components of 10.0 and 9.2 suggest the price sits at support. | ||
Quality is 2.8, below the 4.0 floor, with ROE, ROA and operating margin components at 0.0, free cash flow at negative 1% of revenue and a gross margin component of only 3.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin turns positive and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterA moat component of 6.5, a Piotroski component of 6.7 and a current ratio of 5 suggest the balance sheet is sound and cash burn is small at -1% of revenue.
Momentum is 2.5, below the 4.5 gate, with price below all moving averages, a 200-day slope of -1.5% over 30 days, falling on-balance volume and a death cross that hard-blocks entry.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterA shallow -1.5% 200-day slope and RSI at 31 suggest the downtrend is mild and near oversold, so a reversal is plausible.
Earnings history shows 1 beat and 3 misses in the last 4 reported quarters with an average surprise of -160%, and earnings are flagged as a concern.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus at the report due in 18 days and the beat count improves.
CounterThe 4-quarter history listed dates from 2020 to 2022, so the surprise average is stale and may not reflect current earnings reliability.
Forward P/E is 141.0x with a PEG of 1.39, so the stock is not cheap on forward earnings despite a trading price of $1.41.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings rise enough to bring forward P/E below 50x within 12 months.
CounterEV/EBITDA and price-to-sales components score 10.0 and 7.0, so the stock looks inexpensive on enterprise value and sales, and the forward P/E is based on small earnings.
Take-profit is the resistance level of $1.61, 14.2% above the $1.41 price against 4.3% downside to the $1.35 stop, with no analyst target and upside flagged as exhausted.
→StableTake profit
- Expectation
- Price breaks above the $1.61 resistance level while holding above the $1.35 support.
CounterResistance-based targets are technical, not fundamental, and Bollinger and support components of 10.0 and 9.2 suggest the price sits at support.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Growth at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Quality at 2.8, and Catalyst at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -10% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1.35 stop level, more than 4% under $1.41.
- P3Poor Earnings Surprise Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Expensive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 100x for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P5Limited Technical Upside
Trip ifPrice stays below the $1.61 resistance level for 12 months.