Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
NBTX · Why this verdict
Why Nanobiotix (NBTX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nanobiotix is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, rising trading volume, and positive momentum, but the business quality score sits below the minimum investable threshold at 3.5 out of 10, the stock has essentially zero upside to the analyst price target at just 0.5%, and the risk-reward is deeply unfavorable at 0.07.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company's overall quality score of 3.5 out of 10 sits below the minimum investable threshold, driven by zero operating and net margin scores, a negative free cash flow at 24% of revenue, and weak returns — indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.5 within the next 12 months as the company makes progress toward a positive operating margin. | →Stable |
| CounterClinical-stage biotechnology companies typically have low quality scores by definition; the relevant metric is pipeline progress and regulatory milestones rather than current profitability. | ||
With only 0.5% upside to the analyst price target and a risk-reward ratio of 0.07, the current price offers virtually no margin of safety relative to fundamental fair value, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis. Targets | Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 25% within the next 12 months, creating a more favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterIf a clinical trial readout is positive, analyst targets could be revised dramatically upward — the 0.5% gap to current targets may not reflect the binary upside from pipeline success. | ||
Nanobiotix has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent reported quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 74.9%, suggesting that management's guidance or consensus analyst models consistently underestimate the company's near-term results. Catalyst breakdown | The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAll 4 historical beats occurred on the same reporting date of April 7, 2022, suggesting the earnings history may reflect data anomalies rather than a genuine multi-year track record of outperformance. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 with an RSI near 38 — historically a buy-opportunity level — suggest that institutional accumulation may be building ahead of a potential catalyst. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising volume in a clinical-stage biotechnology stock can reflect speculative retail activity rather than institutional conviction, and the RSI at 38 may reflect a structurally weak company rather than an oversold opportunity. | ||
The company's overall quality score of 3.5 out of 10 sits below the minimum investable threshold, driven by zero operating and net margin scores, a negative free cash flow at 24% of revenue, and weak returns — indicating the business is not yet self-sustaining.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.5 within the next 12 months as the company makes progress toward a positive operating margin.
CounterClinical-stage biotechnology companies typically have low quality scores by definition; the relevant metric is pipeline progress and regulatory milestones rather than current profitability.
With only 0.5% upside to the analyst price target and a risk-reward ratio of 0.07, the current price offers virtually no margin of safety relative to fundamental fair value, making new entry unattractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 25% within the next 12 months, creating a more favorable entry point.
CounterIf a clinical trial readout is positive, analyst targets could be revised dramatically upward — the 0.5% gap to current targets may not reflect the binary upside from pipeline success.
Nanobiotix has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent reported quarters, with an average positive earnings surprise of 74.9%, suggesting that management's guidance or consensus analyst models consistently underestimate the company's near-term results.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
CounterAll 4 historical beats occurred on the same reporting date of April 7, 2022, suggesting the earnings history may reflect data anomalies rather than a genuine multi-year track record of outperformance.
Rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 with an RSI near 38 — historically a buy-opportunity level — suggest that institutional accumulation may be building ahead of a potential catalyst.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score remains above 5.5 and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 6 months.
CounterRising volume in a clinical-stage biotechnology stock can reflect speculative retail activity rather than institutional conviction, and the RSI at 38 may reflect a structurally weak company rather than an oversold opportunity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -285% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -364 (fail)
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
Catalyst
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:152d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.68
Upside
+40.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.68.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Catalyst at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Quality at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 30% in 2 or more of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters without a clear improvement trajectory.
- P3Volume Accumulation And Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 4.0 or on-balance volume declines for 3 consecutive months.
- P4Negligible Upside Poor Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to analyst price target remains below 5% after the next quarterly earnings report and analyst revision cycle.