Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
- ▸Attractively valued
NBTB · Why this verdict
Why NBT Bancorp (NBTB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NBT Bancorp trades at a forward P/E of 10.4x with a PEG of 0.38, growing revenue at 22% year-over-year with a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a golden-cross breakout, yet the stock has already exceeded its analyst price target and carries a high concentration in commercial and commercial real estate loans at 56% of the loan book.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial and commercial real estate loans represent 56% of the loan portfolio, creating concentrated credit exposure to sectors that have exhibited elevated stress levels in recent economic cycles, particularly in office and retail property. Bear case | CRE loan concentration falls below 50% of the portfolio within 12 months as the bank diversifies origination, or credit loss rates on the CRE book remain below 0.5% annually. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCommercial and CRE lending is often the core competency of community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten CRE portfolio can outperform diversified books in stable rate environments. | ||
NBT Bancorp is growing revenue at 22% year-over-year and trading at a PEG of 0.38, suggesting the market has not yet fully valued the pace of earnings expansion relative to the multiples assigned to regional bank peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the growth premium. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank revenue growth is highly sensitive to net interest margins, which compress when rate cycles reverse; the 22% growth rate may not persist through a different rate environment. | ||
A golden cross with RSI at 57, bullish MACD, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) signals broad-based technical strength, with the stock within 2.9% of its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score holds above 7.0 and the stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average over the next 6 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterProximity to a 52-week high combined with an already-exceeded price target means the technical setup is more stretched than early-stage, and a reversal would damage momentum scores quickly. | ||
The bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 10.3%, demonstrating consistent operational execution above management's guidance level. Earnings | Earnings per share beats analyst consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a near-miss of -0.73%, and the earlier miss of -26.6% demonstrates that individual quarters can be materially below expectations, unsettling investor confidence. | ||
Commercial and commercial real estate loans represent 56% of the loan portfolio, creating concentrated credit exposure to sectors that have exhibited elevated stress levels in recent economic cycles, particularly in office and retail property.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- CRE loan concentration falls below 50% of the portfolio within 12 months as the bank diversifies origination, or credit loss rates on the CRE book remain below 0.5% annually.
CounterCommercial and CRE lending is often the core competency of community and regional banks, and a well-underwritten CRE portfolio can outperform diversified books in stable rate environments.
NBT Bancorp is growing revenue at 22% year-over-year and trading at a PEG of 0.38, suggesting the market has not yet fully valued the pace of earnings expansion relative to the multiples assigned to regional bank peers.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for the next 2 quarters, sustaining the growth premium.
CounterRegional bank revenue growth is highly sensitive to net interest margins, which compress when rate cycles reverse; the 22% growth rate may not persist through a different rate environment.
A golden cross with RSI at 57, bullish MACD, and volume accumulation (rising OBV) signals broad-based technical strength, with the stock within 2.9% of its 52-week high and trading above all major moving averages.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score holds above 7.0 and the stock sustains a position above its 200-day moving average over the next 6 months.
CounterProximity to a 52-week high combined with an already-exceeded price target means the technical setup is more stretched than early-stage, and a reversal would damage momentum scores quickly.
The bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 10.3%, demonstrating consistent operational execution above management's guidance level.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats analyst consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a near-miss of -0.73%, and the earlier miss of -26.6% demonstrates that individual quarters can be materially below expectations, unsettling investor confidence.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,387,274 (0.049% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.75
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.92
Upside
-15.5%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.5; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.5, Value at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Peer rank at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Attractive Peg
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cre Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifCRE loan delinquency or charge-off rate exceeds 1.0% of the CRE portfolio on an annualized basis.
- P3Breakout Momentum Near 52 Week High
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.5 or the stock falls more than 10% below its 52-week high.
- P4Earnings Beat Track Record
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 10% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.