Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
MYRG · Why this verdict
Why MYR Group (MYRG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
MYR Group beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 22.6%, including a 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting consistent outperformance across electrical construction projects. Earnings | The company continues to beat or meet consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as electrical grid modernization demand sustains backlog. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter inflates the average and may reflect favorable project timing; the comparison base for the next report is now significantly harder to beat. | ||
MYR Group converts 161% of net income into free cash flow — well above the industry norm — indicating that the company's earnings are of high quality and that reported profits substantially understate actual cash generation. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow conversion can reflect deferred capital investment; if MYR Group needs to reinvest significantly to maintain its equipment fleet, free cash flow could revert to more typical levels. | ||
At $449.94, the stock is already 12% above the analyst consensus target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 and limiting the probability-weighted upside for new buyers even with strong underlying fundamentals. V9 | The stock pulls back below $415 (falls more than 7% from current levels) before the next quarterly earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts may be slow to raise targets after the recent 45.7% earnings beat; a target upgrade following the next earnings report could quickly close the gap between price and analyst target. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.8 is among the highest in the engineering and construction sector, meaning that an earnings shortfall or rising interest rate environment could disproportionately pressure the company's financial flexibility. Bear case | The debt-to-equity ratio declines below 5.0 within 18 months as free cash flow is applied to debt reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh debt in construction companies is often short-term in nature and tied to project bonding requirements rather than long-term debt; the effective leverage risk may be lower than the ratio implies. | ||
MYR Group beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 22.6%, including a 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting consistent outperformance across electrical construction projects.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company continues to beat or meet consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as electrical grid modernization demand sustains backlog.
CounterThe 45.7% beat in the most recent quarter inflates the average and may reflect favorable project timing; the comparison base for the next report is now significantly harder to beat.
MYR Group converts 161% of net income into free cash flow — well above the industry norm — indicating that the company's earnings are of high quality and that reported profits substantially understate actual cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for at least 2 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterHigh free cash flow conversion can reflect deferred capital investment; if MYR Group needs to reinvest significantly to maintain its equipment fleet, free cash flow could revert to more typical levels.
At $449.94, the stock is already 12% above the analyst consensus target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.06 and limiting the probability-weighted upside for new buyers even with strong underlying fundamentals.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The stock pulls back below $415 (falls more than 7% from current levels) before the next quarterly earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile.
CounterAnalysts may be slow to raise targets after the recent 45.7% earnings beat; a target upgrade following the next earnings report could quickly close the gap between price and analyst target.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 8.8 is among the highest in the engineering and construction sector, meaning that an earnings shortfall or rising interest rate environment could disproportionately pressure the company's financial flexibility.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The debt-to-equity ratio declines below 5.0 within 18 months as free cash flow is applied to debt reduction.
CounterHigh debt in construction companies is often short-term in nature and tied to project bonding requirements rather than long-term debt; the effective leverage risk may be lower than the ratio implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.6 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 161% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.9 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 8.1 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 16)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $10,501,547 (0.198% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.0% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.49
Upside
+20.3%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 16, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 8.8 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Sentiment at 7.5, and Technical at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 4.4, Insider at 5.2, and Quality at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.49 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 10% in any 1 of the next 2 quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Target Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $480 (surpasses current levels by more than 7%) without an analyst target revision higher.
- P4High Leverage Debt Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 10 or interest expense increases by more than 25% year-over-year.