Value
4.5/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
MYN · Why this verdict
Why Blackrock MuniYield New York Qu (MYN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackRock MuniYield New York Quality has strong reported margins (64%) and recovering momentum, but its price sits below the 200-day average, upside is exhausted and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, so the engine says maintain without adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 6.1 with strong margins of 64% and a Piotroski F-Score component of 6.7, though FCF/NI is only 54%. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 60% and quality stays above 5.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThis is an investment fund, so operating margin and Rule of 40 metrics are mechanically inflated and may not reflect underlying business quality. | ||
Momentum is 6.0, clearing the 5.5 gate with rising on-balance volume, but price remains below its 200-day average with a flat slope after a death cross. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross with a flat 200-day slope often marks a range-bound market, and recovery signals like improving MACD can fade. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with a dividend safety score of 4.8 despite a high yield. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety improves to at least 6.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety confidence is only 0.25, so the warning rests on thin data and may overstate the risk. | ||
Take-profit is a default 15% target of $10.25 above the $8.91 price against 3.8% downside to the $8.57 stop, with no analyst target and upside flagged as exhausted. Take profit | Price rises toward the $10.25 level while holding above the $8.57 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 15% target is a placeholder, not a valuation-based estimate, so the true upside may be higher or lower. | ||
The risk score is 8.5, with short interest at 9.8, days to cover at 10.0 and volatility at 7.6, marking a low-risk holding. Components | The risk score stays at or above 7.0 through the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 154% YoY growth figure and a current ratio component of 0.4 suggest the data is distorted by fund accounting, so low risk may not reflect interest-rate sensitivity. | ||
Quality is 6.1 with strong margins of 64% and a Piotroski F-Score component of 6.7, though FCF/NI is only 54%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 60% and quality stays above 5.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThis is an investment fund, so operating margin and Rule of 40 metrics are mechanically inflated and may not reflect underlying business quality.
Momentum is 6.0, clearing the 5.5 gate with rising on-balance volume, but price remains below its 200-day average with a flat slope after a death cross.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterA death cross with a flat 200-day slope often marks a range-bound market, and recovery signals like improving MACD can fade.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with a dividend safety score of 4.8 despite a high yield.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety improves to at least 6.0 within 12 months.
CounterDividend safety confidence is only 0.25, so the warning rests on thin data and may overstate the risk.
Take-profit is a default 15% target of $10.25 above the $8.91 price against 3.8% downside to the $8.57 stop, with no analyst target and upside flagged as exhausted.
→StableTake profit
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $10.25 level while holding above the $8.57 stop.
CounterThe 15% target is a placeholder, not a valuation-based estimate, so the true upside may be higher or lower.
The risk score is 8.5, with short interest at 9.8, days to cover at 10.0 and volatility at 7.6, marking a low-risk holding.
↑ImprovingComponents
- Expectation
- The risk score stays at or above 7.0 through the next 12 months.
CounterThe 154% YoY growth figure and a current ratio component of 0.4 suggest the data is distorted by fund accounting, so low risk may not reflect interest-rate sensitivity.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 64%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 54% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 189 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 154% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 9.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.9 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.8, and Quality at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Value at 4.5, and Insider at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Margins Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from the current 6.1.
- P2Recovering Momentum Below 200ma
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 and price drops below the $8.57 stop level.
- P3Yield Trap Dividend Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0.
- P4Limited Upside Default Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.57 stop level, more than 3.8% under $8.91.
- P5Low Risk Score Strong
Trip ifRisk score falls below 6.0.