Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
MYE · Why this verdict
Why Myers Industries (MYE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Myers Industries combines a strong earnings beat streak, an attractive valuation, and a positive news-driven upgrade in the engine's stance, tempered by leverage already flagged as a risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in. | ||
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case. | ||
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier. Warnings | News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost. | ||
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in.
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case.
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance.
CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost.
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 196% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 10.0 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-9.9%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.82
Upside
+14.2%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Value at 8.0, and Growth at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from the current 16.9x without at least a 10% price increase.
- P3Positive News Sentiment Modifier
Trip ifNews sentiment falls below -0.3 within the next quarter.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0 within the next fiscal year.