Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
MYE · Why this verdict
Why Myers Industries (MYE) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in. | ||
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case. | ||
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier. Warnings | News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost. | ||
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a positive average surprise of about 23%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, suggesting these beats may already be priced in.
The stock trades attractively relative to its earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of about 0.25.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists or closes via price appreciation.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio suggests some options-market hedging against downside, tempering the bullish valuation case.
Positive news sentiment has been strong enough to shift the engine's recommended stance from a sell-oriented lean to a hold via a news-driven modifier.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment should remain positive over the next quarter, sustaining the improved stance.
CounterNegative asymmetry shows the risk/reward at the current price is still unfavorable independent of the sentiment boost.
Elevated leverage draws a penalty to the overall score.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong cash conversion suggests the company can comfortably service and reduce this leverage over time.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Myers Industries combines a strong earnings beat streak, an attractive valuation, and a positive news-driven upgrade in the engine's stance, tempered by leverage already flagged as a risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 265% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.16
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from the current 16.9x without at least a 10% price increase.
- P3Positive News Sentiment Modifier
Trip ifNews sentiment falls below -0.3 within the next quarter.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0 within the next fiscal year.