Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
- ▸Attractively valued
MTH · Why this verdict
Why Meritage Homes (MTH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.9 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 36% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -18%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $79,066 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 281.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
13.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.41>1.3, MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Momentum at 6.4, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Growth at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.