Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
MSBI · Why this verdict
Why Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades cheaply on a forward basis, with a PEG ratio of just 0.06, implying significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated or the price should re-rate upward toward its analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its prior price target, suggesting the valuation discount may already be reflected in analyst expectations. | ||
The bank has missed EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubts about estimate accuracy or business execution. Earnings | The company should deliver at least one beat or inline quarter in its next 2 reports. | →Stable |
| CounterModest insider buying suggests management confidence despite the miss streak. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers over the past 90 days, a modestly bullish signal. Insider | Insider buying should continue or increase in scale over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe buying is described as modest, at a small fraction of market cap, limiting its signal strength. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 3.00 suggests the options market is positioned defensively ahead of earnings. Options | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below after the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios ahead of earnings can simply reflect routine hedging rather than a genuinely bearish view. | ||
The stock trades cheaply on a forward basis, with a PEG ratio of just 0.06, implying significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated or the price should re-rate upward toward its analyst target.
CounterThe stock has already reached its prior price target, suggesting the valuation discount may already be reflected in analyst expectations.
The bank has missed EPS estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, raising doubts about estimate accuracy or business execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should deliver at least one beat or inline quarter in its next 2 reports.
CounterModest insider buying suggests management confidence despite the miss streak.
Insiders have been net buyers over the past 90 days, a modestly bullish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or increase in scale over the next quarter.
CounterThe buying is described as modest, at a small fraction of market cap, limiting its signal strength.
An elevated put/call ratio of 3.00 suggests the options market is positioned defensively ahead of earnings.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below after the next earnings report.
CounterElevated put/call ratios ahead of earnings can simply reflect routine hedging rather than a genuinely bearish view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Midland States Bancorp screens cheap with modest insider buying support, but a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and elevated options hedging temper the value case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
8.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $248,988 (0.039% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.21
Upside
-19.0%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Insider at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 2.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 8.2, Growth at 8.1, and Value at 7.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.4, Momentum at 2.9, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.7x without at least a 10% price increase.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Modest Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider transactions turn to net selling that exceeds $100,000 within 90 days.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 within 30 days of the next earnings report.