Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
MRTN · Why this verdict
Why Marten Transport (MRTN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marten Transport is contending with declining revenue and a negative cash-flow-quality flag, though the stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend the engine still flags as constructive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline. | ||
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem. | ||
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels. Bear case | Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase. | ||
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline.
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year.
CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem.
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further.
CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize.
CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 122%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.09
Upside
+14.8%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.1 and asymmetric R:R of 2.09.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Insider at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 3.0, Momentum at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion ratio exceeds 0% within the next fiscal year.
- P3Momentum Pullback Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 within the next quarter.
- P4Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst price target rises more than 10% above the current $18.05 resistance-based target.