Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.2 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
MRTN · Why this verdict
Why Marten Transport (MRTN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline. | ||
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year. | →Stable |
| CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem. | ||
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels. Bear case | Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase. | ||
Revenue is contracting, down 9% year over year, a headwind for this cyclical trucking business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, within the next 2 quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 suggests balance-sheet and operational fundamentals remain solid despite the top-line decline.
Free cash flow conversion relative to net income is deeply negative, a red flag on earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within the next fiscal year.
CounterThis can reflect a cyclical trough in a capital-intensive trucking business rather than a structural earnings-quality problem.
The stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend, with price still above its 200-day moving average, which the engine flags as a potential buying opportunity.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should hold above 5.5 rather than deteriorate further.
CounterThe momentum score sits right at the soft-gate boundary, meaning any further weakness would trigger a full gate failure.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst-based price target, leaving limited upside from current levels.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised if the earnings and revenue trends stabilize.
CounterNegative asymmetry already signals the risk/reward is unfavorable at current prices even absent a target increase.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marten Transport is contending with declining revenue and a negative cash-flow-quality flag, though the stock is pulling back within a broader uptrend the engine still flags as constructive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -283% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.05
Upside
-6.0%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Peer rank at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Headwind
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion ratio exceeds 0% within the next fiscal year.
- P3Momentum Pullback Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 within the next quarter.
- P4Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst price target rises more than 10% above the current $18.05 resistance-based target.