Value
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
MRAM · Why this verdict
Why Everspin Technologies (MRAM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Everspin shows classic value-trap signals and extreme insider selling despite a positive earnings-surprise track record and a technical pullback the engine flags as a buy opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows classic value-trap characteristics, including compressed operating margins near 3.2% and a deeply negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag. Quality breakdown | Operating margin should expand back above 10% and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 63% drawdown from 52-week highs may already reflect this margin compression, limiting further downside. | ||
Insiders, including a named executive, have sold an extreme amount of stock relative to market capitalization, a strong bearish signal on management's own view of value. Insider | Insider selling intensity should fall to a non-extreme level below 1% of market cap within the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy insider selling can also reflect pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a fresh negative view. | ||
Despite weak fundamentals elsewhere, the company has posted a positive average earnings surprise with beats and no misses in the last 4 quarters. Earnings | The earnings beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, showing the earnings beats have not translated into genuine fundamental quality improvement. | ||
The stock is in an uptrend pullback with a moderate RSI reading, a level the engine's technical framework flags as a potential buying opportunity while price still holds above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover back above 50 while price holds above the 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe momentum gate has failed outright and falling on-balance volume shows distribution, both arguing this is deterioration rather than a healthy pullback. | ||
The company shows classic value-trap characteristics, including compressed operating margins near 3.2% and a deeply negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income red flag.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin should expand back above 10% and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months.
CounterA 63% drawdown from 52-week highs may already reflect this margin compression, limiting further downside.
Insiders, including a named executive, have sold an extreme amount of stock relative to market capitalization, a strong bearish signal on management's own view of value.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling intensity should fall to a non-extreme level below 1% of market cap within the next quarter.
CounterHeavy insider selling can also reflect pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) rather than a fresh negative view.
Despite weak fundamentals elsewhere, the company has posted a positive average earnings surprise with beats and no misses in the last 4 quarters.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak should continue with at least one more beat in the next 2 quarters.
CounterThe quality score sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, showing the earnings beats have not translated into genuine fundamental quality improvement.
The stock is in an uptrend pullback with a moderate RSI reading, a level the engine's technical framework flags as a potential buying opportunity while price still holds above its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover back above 50 while price holds above the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe momentum gate has failed outright and falling on-balance volume shows distribution, both arguing this is deterioration rather than a healthy pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -18% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Analyst upside: 74%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $579,612 (0.162% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 111%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $357M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.16%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.20
Upside
+48.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -72% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.20.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.9; the weakest are Quality at 3.4, Technical at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Value Trap Margin Compression
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 0%, turning negative, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percent of market cap exceeds 5% within the next 90 days.
- P3Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifThe company misses EPS estimates in at least 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.
- P4Uptrend Pullback Buy Opportunity
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below the current level while RSI stays below 30 for 2 consecutive weeks.