Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
MPB · Why this verdict
Why Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mid Penn Bancorp is a fast-growing regional bank on a low forward multiple with small insider buying, but it has missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades within 1.7% of the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew about 22% year over year, with $96.7M in the June 2026 quarter against $80.0M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing at 10% or better year over year over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe revenue figures conflict: the filing-based number is $96.7M but yfinance shows $75.2M for the same quarter, a 22% divergence, so the growth rate may be overstated. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest miss was only 1.4% ($0.88 against $0.89), so results are running close to expectations. Miss count | EPS should return to meeting or beating estimates and hold near $0.88 per quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 20% ($0.64 against $0.80), and the average surprise is negative, which signals earnings volatility. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG of 0.15, plus strong margins of 26%. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay near 9x while earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe business has no competitive moat and its peer quality rank is low at 1.8 out of 10, so the low multiple may reflect weaker quality. | ||
Price of $34.26 sits 1.7% below the $34.85 analyst target, against 5.8% downside to the $32.48 stop, leaving little room for upside. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price if earnings stop missing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and a reward-to-risk of 0.3 means a small earnings disappointment would outweigh the remaining upside. | ||
Insiders made 7 purchases totaling $34,590 in 90 days with no sales, a small but positive sign of confidence. Insider buying | Insiders should remain net buyers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchases equal only 0.004% of market cap, too small to signal real conviction. | ||
Revenue grew about 22% year over year, with $96.7M in the June 2026 quarter against $80.0M a year earlier.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at 10% or better year over year over the next four quarters.
CounterThe revenue figures conflict: the filing-based number is $96.7M but yfinance shows $75.2M for the same quarter, a 22% divergence, so the growth rate may be overstated.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest miss was only 1.4% ($0.88 against $0.89), so results are running close to expectations.
↓DeterioratingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS should return to meeting or beating estimates and hold near $0.88 per quarter.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 20% ($0.64 against $0.80), and the average surprise is negative, which signals earnings volatility.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG of 0.15, plus strong margins of 26%.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay near 9x while earnings grow.
CounterThe business has no competitive moat and its peer quality rank is low at 1.8 out of 10, so the low multiple may reflect weaker quality.
Price of $34.26 sits 1.7% below the $34.85 analyst target, against 5.8% downside to the $32.48 stop, leaving little room for upside.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price if earnings stop missing.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and a reward-to-risk of 0.3 means a small earnings disappointment would outweigh the remaining upside.
Insiders made 7 purchases totaling $34,590 in 90 days with no sales, a small but positive sign of confidence.
→StableInsider buying
- Expectation
- Insiders should remain net buyers over the next 12 months.
CounterThe purchases equal only 0.004% of market cap, too small to signal real conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.7 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $34,590 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.11
Upside
+0.6%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 8.2, and Insider at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Peer rank at 5.2, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 22%.
- P2Earnings Misses Narrow
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $0.80 from the latest $0.88.
- P3Low Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 8.9x.
- P4Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifPrice falls below the $32.48 stop, a drop of more than 5.2% from $34.26.
- P5Small Insider Buying
Trip ifNet insider value over 90 days falls below $0 from the current +$34,590.