Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
MNTN · Why this verdict
Why MNTN (MNTN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MNTN is a high-quality software business growing revenue about 21% with a perfect Piotroski score and a low forward multiple, but a 53% drawdown, a falling trend and heavy insider selling weigh on the stock.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew about 21% year over year, with $82.5M in the June 2026 quarter against $68.5M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing at 15% or better year over year toward the $87.7M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is uneven, with a dip to $73.7M in March 2026 after $87.1M in December 2025, so growth could be seasonal. | ||
Margins are strong at 18% and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 of 9, marking a financially sound business. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near 18% while the F-Score stays at 8 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion is a warning sign at 75% FCF to net income, so reported profit may not fully turn into cash. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 41.9%. Earnings track record | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 4 November 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest quarter was a 8.9% miss, which may signal that the string of beats is ending as comparisons get harder. | ||
Three insider sales worth $4.27M, or 0.589% of market cap, with no buys in 90 days are an overhang that should fade within 12 months. Insider selling | Insider selling should decline and net insider activity should move toward neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy selling while the stock is 53% off its high suggests insiders do not see the shares as undervalued. | ||
Forward P/E is 7.4x with a PEG of 0.40, and price of $9.68 sits 62.7% below the $15.75 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price should rerate toward the analyst target as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average falling 3.0% over 30 days and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75. | ||
Revenue grew about 21% year over year, with $82.5M in the June 2026 quarter against $68.5M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at 15% or better year over year toward the $87.7M next-quarter estimate.
CounterQuarterly revenue is uneven, with a dip to $73.7M in March 2026 after $87.1M in December 2025, so growth could be seasonal.
Margins are strong at 18% and the Piotroski F-Score is a perfect 9 of 9, marking a financially sound business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near 18% while the F-Score stays at 8 or above.
CounterCash conversion is a warning sign at 75% FCF to net income, so reported profit may not fully turn into cash.
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 41.9%.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the 4 November 2026 report.
CounterThe latest quarter was a 8.9% miss, which may signal that the string of beats is ending as comparisons get harder.
Three insider sales worth $4.27M, or 0.589% of market cap, with no buys in 90 days are an overhang that should fade within 12 months.
→StableInsider selling
- Expectation
- Insider selling should decline and net insider activity should move toward neutral.
CounterHeavy selling while the stock is 53% off its high suggests insiders do not see the shares as undervalued.
Forward P/E is 7.4x with a PEG of 0.40, and price of $9.68 sits 62.7% below the $15.75 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should rerate toward the analyst target as growth continues.
CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average falling 3.0% over 30 days and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.75.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 7.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $4,266,038 (0.589% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 0.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Above max pain $8
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.3>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- INSIDER:0.59%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.29
Upside
+62.2%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -49% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:6.3>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Insider at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Quality at 7.2, and Peer rank at 6.9; the weakest are Insider at 4.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 21%.
- P2High Quality Profitable Business
Trip ifOperating and net margins average less than 12% from the current 18%.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Insider Selling Overhang
Trip if90-day insider selling exceeds 1.0% of market cap from the current 0.589%.
- P5Low Multiple With Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.00 stop, a drop of more than 7% from $9.68.