Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
MNPR · Why this verdict
Why Monopar Therapeutics (MNPR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Monopar is a pre-revenue, cash-burning biotech whose appeal rests on a 60% gap to the analyst target and accumulation on a pullback, offset by heavy insider selling and very weak business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price of $70.65 sits 60.0% below the $113.03 analyst target after a 13% haircut, against 12.0% downside to the $66.75 stop. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target as clinical milestones are reached. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target is a forecast for a company with no revenue, and the stock is already 43% off its 52-week high, so the target may not be reached. | ||
The company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and zero reported revenue in every recent quarter, so value depends on clinical progress. Quality breakdown | Quarterly losses should stay contained near the recent -$0.62 per share while funding lasts. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality scores 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, and losses have been unpredictable, with one quarter at -$2.75 per share, so funding risk and dilution could rise. | ||
Insiders made 26 sales worth $4.83M, or 1.019% of market cap, over the last 90 days with no buys, and this selling should fade over the next 12 months. Insider selling | Insider selling should decline and net insider activity should move toward neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy continuous selling, with the latest sale on 20 October 2026, suggests insiders see better opportunities elsewhere or little upside at current prices. | ||
Rising on-balance volume shows accumulation, and the 200-day average is still rising 1.9% per 30 days, so the dip below it is a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average within 12 months as accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShort interest of 24% suggests many traders expect the price to fall, and price is below the 200-day average with a low 52-week position score. | ||
EPS landed close to estimates in recent quarters, beating in 2 of the last 4 with the latest at -$0.62 against a -$0.65 estimate. Earnings track record | Quarterly losses should keep matching or narrowing against estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the last four quarters missed by about 19% to 20%, and losses are not narrowing: -$0.62 latest against -$0.46 the quarter before. | ||
Price of $70.65 sits 60.0% below the $113.03 analyst target after a 13% haircut, against 12.0% downside to the $66.75 stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target as clinical milestones are reached.
CounterThe target is a forecast for a company with no revenue, and the stock is already 43% off its 52-week high, so the target may not be reached.
The company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and zero reported revenue in every recent quarter, so value depends on clinical progress.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly losses should stay contained near the recent -$0.62 per share while funding lasts.
CounterQuality scores 1.6, below the 4.0 floor, and losses have been unpredictable, with one quarter at -$2.75 per share, so funding risk and dilution could rise.
Insiders made 26 sales worth $4.83M, or 1.019% of market cap, over the last 90 days with no buys, and this selling should fade over the next 12 months.
→StableInsider selling
- Expectation
- Insider selling should decline and net insider activity should move toward neutral.
CounterHeavy continuous selling, with the latest sale on 20 October 2026, suggests insiders see better opportunities elsewhere or little upside at current prices.
Rising on-balance volume shows accumulation, and the 200-day average is still rising 1.9% per 30 days, so the dip below it is a pullback in an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average within 12 months as accumulation continues.
CounterShort interest of 24% suggests many traders expect the price to fall, and price is below the 200-day average with a low 52-week position score.
EPS landed close to estimates in recent quarters, beating in 2 of the last 4 with the latest at -$0.62 against a -$0.65 estimate.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Quarterly losses should keep matching or narrowing against estimates.
CounterTwo of the last four quarters missed by about 19% to 20%, and losses are not narrowing: -$0.62 latest against -$0.46 the quarter before.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 77%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $4,830,506 (0.981% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 7.3 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 25%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.5>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:0.98%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.52
Upside
+54.0%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 0.98%=EXTREME outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.52.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 6.6, and Peer rank at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Catalyst at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $90 from the current $113.03.
- P2Pre Revenue Cash Burn
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -$1.00 from the current -$0.62.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip if90-day insider selling exceeds 2% of market cap from the current 1.019%.
- P4Accumulation On Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $66.75 stop, a drop of more than 5.5% from $70.65.
- P5Earnings Near Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% for 2 consecutive quarters.