Value
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
MNKD · Why this verdict
Why MannKind (MNKD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MannKind is growing revenue 43% year over year and generates positive free cash flow despite a GAAP loss, with a large gap to the analyst target, but three straight earnings misses, a confirmed downtrend and sole-supplier dependence keep it speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 10% FCF margin, a 3.9% FCF yield and a Rule of 40 score of 53. Quality breakdown | FCF margin should hold at or above 10% as revenue scales. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating and net margins score 0.0, so the FCF margin may rest on non-cash items or working capital and not on genuine profitability. | ||
Revenue grew 43% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $109.4M for the period ended June 2026 against $76.5M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing at 25% or better year over year over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue has been lumpy, with $111.96M in December 2025 followed by $90.2M and then $109.4M, so the year-over-year pace may reflect timing rather than steady demand. | ||
EPS has missed estimates three times in a row, most recently -$0.01 against a $0.02 estimate, and recovery to positive EPS is needed for the thesis to hold. Miss count | EPS should return to positive territory and beat estimates within the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMisses have widened from -$0.01 to -$0.05 in the earlier quarter and the average surprise is -228%, which shows earnings are deteriorating, not recovering. | ||
Price of $3.19 sits 120.5% below the $7.03 analyst target, against 11.4% downside to the $2.97 stop, a reward-to-risk of 10.5. Upside pct | Price should move toward the analyst target as growth and cash flow persist. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is more than 40% off its 52-week high in a downtrend with the 200-day average falling 8.4% over 30 days. | ||
Amphastar is the sole insulin supplier for Afrezza, so supply continuity underpins revenue growth. Bear case | Supply remains uninterrupted and quarterly revenue stays above $100M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single supplier disruption could halt product shipments, and the 10-K flags this concentration among 1 high and 1 medium risks. | ||
The company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss, with a 10% FCF margin, a 3.9% FCF yield and a Rule of 40 score of 53.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin should hold at or above 10% as revenue scales.
CounterOperating and net margins score 0.0, so the FCF margin may rest on non-cash items or working capital and not on genuine profitability.
Revenue grew 43% year over year, with quarterly revenue of $109.4M for the period ended June 2026 against $76.5M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at 25% or better year over year over the next four quarters.
CounterQuarterly revenue has been lumpy, with $111.96M in December 2025 followed by $90.2M and then $109.4M, so the year-over-year pace may reflect timing rather than steady demand.
EPS has missed estimates three times in a row, most recently -$0.01 against a $0.02 estimate, and recovery to positive EPS is needed for the thesis to hold.
↓DeterioratingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS should return to positive territory and beat estimates within the next 12 months.
CounterMisses have widened from -$0.01 to -$0.05 in the earlier quarter and the average surprise is -228%, which shows earnings are deteriorating, not recovering.
Price of $3.19 sits 120.5% below the $7.03 analyst target, against 11.4% downside to the $2.97 stop, a reward-to-risk of 10.5.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target as growth and cash flow persist.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and the stock is more than 40% off its 52-week high in a downtrend with the 200-day average falling 8.4% over 30 days.
Amphastar is the sole insulin supplier for Afrezza, so supply continuity underpins revenue growth.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply remains uninterrupted and quarterly revenue stays above $100M.
CounterA single supplier disruption could halt product shipments, and the 10-K flags this concentration among 1 high and 1 medium risks.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 3.7%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 53 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 43% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 129%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $414,881 (0.038% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
- ▸High IV: 113%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
6.62
Upside
+99.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.1, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 43%.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 0% from the current 10%.
- P3Earnings Recovery After Misses
Trip ifEPS stays below $0.00 for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $5.00 from the current $7.03.
- P5Sole Supplier Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls more than 15% sequentially from $109.4M.