Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
MLAB · Why this verdict
Why Mesa Laboratories (MLAB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The growth score sits at just 3.1, flagged as weak growth, in contrast to the stronger quality and value dimensions. Bear case | Revenue growth should accelerate, lifting the growth score meaningfully above its current level. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an 18.4% average surprise, suggest underlying execution is outpacing the modest top-line growth. | ||
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all moving averages and bullish MACD, while the stock trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 8.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.01. Chart pattern detection | Momentum should remain above the 5.5 threshold and the valuation score should stay elevated as the breakout continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA weak overall score of 4.9 out of 10 and a weak-growth flag suggest the cheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the V9 asymmetry gate failed at a -0.65 ratio, showing modeled downside now exceeds modeled upside. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as a higher analyst target is issued or the entry price declines. | →Stable |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion at 475% FCF-to-net-income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business could still support upward target revisions. | ||
Insiders sold a notable $641,619, or 0.110% of market cap, over the trailing 90 days across 4 separate sales, driving a bearish insider signal. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should moderate, or buying should resume, moving the signal away from bearish. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is spread across smaller, routine-looking transactions rather than one large concentrated sale, which can indicate normal diversification. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 18.4%, despite a recent miss of -12.9%. Earnings | The beat rate should return to 3 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss came in the quarter immediately preceding this one, raising the possibility of a fresh downward trend rather than an isolated blip. | ||
The growth score sits at just 3.1, flagged as weak growth, in contrast to the stronger quality and value dimensions.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should accelerate, lifting the growth score meaningfully above its current level.
CounterStrong earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an 18.4% average surprise, suggest underlying execution is outpacing the modest top-line growth.
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all moving averages and bullish MACD, while the stock trades at an attractively valued forward P/E of 8.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.01.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum should remain above the 5.5 threshold and the valuation score should stay elevated as the breakout continues.
CounterA weak overall score of 4.9 out of 10 and a weak-growth flag suggest the cheap valuation may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a genuine bargain.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, and the V9 asymmetry gate failed at a -0.65 ratio, showing modeled downside now exceeds modeled upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as a higher analyst target is issued or the entry price declines.
CounterExcellent cash conversion at 475% FCF-to-net-income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 suggest the business could still support upward target revisions.
Insiders sold a notable $641,619, or 0.110% of market cap, over the trailing 90 days across 4 separate sales, driving a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate, or buying should resume, moving the signal away from bearish.
CounterThe selling is spread across smaller, routine-looking transactions rather than one large concentrated sale, which can indicate normal diversification.
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 18.4%, despite a recent miss of -12.9%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should return to 3 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive.
CounterThe most recent miss came in the quarter immediately preceding this one, raising the possibility of a fresh downward trend rather than an isolated blip.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MLAB shows a technical breakout at an attractive valuation and a solid earnings-beat history, but the stock has already reached its analyst target with a failed asymmetry gate, weak growth, and notable insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 475% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.5x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $641,619 (0.113% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.0 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Value at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Growth at 3.1, and Momentum at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Breakout Setup Attractive Valuation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5, breaking the current golden-cross breakout setup.
- P2Analyst Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio exceeds 1.0, clearing the V9 gate that currently fails at -0.65.
- P3Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score rises above 6.0 from the current 3.1 reading.
- P4Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net buying that exceeds $200,000 over a 90-day window.
- P5Earnings Beat Streak With Recent Miss
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.