Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
MLAB · Why this verdict
Why Mesa Laboratories (MLAB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mesa Laboratories has strong cash conversion and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but revenue growth is weak, quarterly earnings are volatile and about 80% of revenue comes from one product line. The analyst target of $106.25 has already been passed (upside of -17.4%), leaving little room.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is highly concentrated: Clinical Genomics consumables make up 80.0% of revenue, a high-severity concentration risk. Bear case | The product concentration should persist, so results will track Clinical Genomics demand. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA dominant, recurring consumables line can provide stable, high-margin revenue, as shown by a gross margin score of 8.8. | ||
Growth is weak, with a revenue growth score of 2.7 out of 10, and quarterly revenue slipping from $65.1M in December 2025 to $60.1M in June 2026. Components | Quarterly revenue should return to growth above the December 2025 level of $65.1M. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 12.5x already prices in slow growth and any recovery would be an upside surprise. | ||
Cash generation is excellent: free cash flow is 1000% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, though there is no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should remain well above net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet income is very small (net margin score 1.0), so a 1000% ratio mostly reflects depressed earnings and non-cash charges, not unusually high cash flow. | ||
Earnings are volatile: 3 beats and 1 miss in the last four quarters, but the latest EPS of 1.30 missed the 2.55 estimate by 49%, and four of the prior eight quarters were also misses. Earnings | EPS should come in at or above estimates at the November 9 report for the record to look reliable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEstimates have been trending up, and a beat in three of the last four quarters shows the August miss may be an outlier. | ||
The stock at $128.66 has passed its $106.25 analyst target (upside of -17.4%), with 7.4% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets need to rise to the current price for new upside to open; otherwise the stock should consolidate or pull back. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are trending up, which could drive target upgrades, and insiders and institutions are buying. | ||
The business is highly concentrated: Clinical Genomics consumables make up 80.0% of revenue, a high-severity concentration risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The product concentration should persist, so results will track Clinical Genomics demand.
CounterA dominant, recurring consumables line can provide stable, high-margin revenue, as shown by a gross margin score of 8.8.
Growth is weak, with a revenue growth score of 2.7 out of 10, and quarterly revenue slipping from $65.1M in December 2025 to $60.1M in June 2026.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should return to growth above the December 2025 level of $65.1M.
CounterA forward P/E of 12.5x already prices in slow growth and any recovery would be an upside surprise.
Cash generation is excellent: free cash flow is 1000% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, though there is no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should remain well above net income over the next 12 months.
CounterNet income is very small (net margin score 1.0), so a 1000% ratio mostly reflects depressed earnings and non-cash charges, not unusually high cash flow.
Earnings are volatile: 3 beats and 1 miss in the last four quarters, but the latest EPS of 1.30 missed the 2.55 estimate by 49%, and four of the prior eight quarters were also misses.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above estimates at the November 9 report for the record to look reliable.
CounterEstimates have been trending up, and a beat in three of the last four quarters shows the August miss may be an outlier.
The stock at $128.66 has passed its $106.25 analyst target (upside of -17.4%), with 7.4% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets need to rise to the current price for new upside to open; otherwise the stock should consolidate or pull back.
CounterEstimates are trending up, which could drive target upgrades, and insiders and institutions are buying.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $102,321 (0.014% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (4)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.76
Upside
-19.1%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.76 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.7, Insider at 7.5, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.9, Growth at 2.7, and Sentiment at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.76 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 1000%.
- P2Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Product Line Concentration
Trip ifClinical Genomics share of revenue falls below 60% from the current 80%.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 10% from the current -17.4%.
- P5Weak Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue rises above $65M for 2 consecutive quarters.