Value
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
MIR · Why this verdict
Why Mirion Technologies (MIR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mirion Technologies combines industry-leading 28% revenue growth and exceptional 271% free cash flow conversion with a confirmed technical downtrend and 19% short interest — the gap between fundamental quality and current price is wide, but near-term catalysts are needed to close it.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Consensus analyst targets imply approximately 45% upside from the current price, and the risk/reward geometry favors buyers by roughly 6-to-1 — an unusually wide margin that reflects how far price has diverged from fundamental estimates. Price targets | Consensus analyst price target stays above $21.00 over the next four quarters, preserving meaningful potential upside relative to the current price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap industrials are frequently revised lower when price momentum is negative and institutional interest wanes; if the downtrend persists, consensus targets may migrate down and erode the apparent upside. | ||
The company converts net income into free cash flow at a rate of 271% and achieves a perfect score on standardized financial health screening, signaling that reported earnings materially understate actual cash generation and that the business carries significant financial flexibility. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for the next two reported quarters, confirming the high conversion is structural rather than a one-period anomaly. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConversion ratios well above 100% can reflect deferred capital investment rather than structural advantage; if maintenance or growth capex normalizes upward, the ratio may compress sharply and undermine the quality argument. | ||
Revenue is expanding at 28% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its industry peer group by growth rank — and if even a fraction of this expansion rate proves durable, the current valuation looks undemanding for a cash-generative business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year for the next two consecutive reported quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe growth estimate carries limited confidence, and any deceleration toward single-digit expansion would undermine the primary valuation rationale in a stock already trading with negative technical momentum. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% per month — a confirmed downtrend that represents a meaningful near-term headwind regardless of the fundamental growth story. Bear case | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive and the stock closes above the moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading sessions, signaling a trend reversal. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConfirmed downtrends in structurally growing businesses are often transient; volume accumulation in the face of price weakness may indicate that buyers are positioning ahead of a catalyst, not that further declines are inevitable. | ||
Short interest at 19% of float combined with implied volatility of 128% reflects concentrated bearish positioning that can amplify downside but also creates the conditions for a sharp rally if the growth thesis is validated through earnings. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 12% of float over the next two quarters as earnings results reduce the conviction of short sellers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 19% short position likely reflects informed concern about supplier concentration and execution risk; if the next earnings report disappoints, the elevated short base could drive further forced selling rather than a covering rally. | ||
Consensus analyst targets imply approximately 45% upside from the current price, and the risk/reward geometry favors buyers by roughly 6-to-1 — an unusually wide margin that reflects how far price has diverged from fundamental estimates.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Consensus analyst price target stays above $21.00 over the next four quarters, preserving meaningful potential upside relative to the current price.
CounterAnalyst targets in small-cap industrials are frequently revised lower when price momentum is negative and institutional interest wanes; if the downtrend persists, consensus targets may migrate down and erode the apparent upside.
The company converts net income into free cash flow at a rate of 271% and achieves a perfect score on standardized financial health screening, signaling that reported earnings materially understate actual cash generation and that the business carries significant financial flexibility.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for the next two reported quarters, confirming the high conversion is structural rather than a one-period anomaly.
CounterConversion ratios well above 100% can reflect deferred capital investment rather than structural advantage; if maintenance or growth capex normalizes upward, the ratio may compress sharply and undermine the quality argument.
Revenue is expanding at 28% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its industry peer group by growth rank — and if even a fraction of this expansion rate proves durable, the current valuation looks undemanding for a cash-generative business.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year for the next two consecutive reported quarters.
CounterThe growth estimate carries limited confidence, and any deceleration toward single-digit expansion would undermine the primary valuation rationale in a stock already trading with negative technical momentum.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at roughly 2% per month — a confirmed downtrend that represents a meaningful near-term headwind regardless of the fundamental growth story.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive and the stock closes above the moving average for at least 10 consecutive trading sessions, signaling a trend reversal.
CounterConfirmed downtrends in structurally growing businesses are often transient; volume accumulation in the face of price weakness may indicate that buyers are positioning ahead of a catalyst, not that further declines are inevitable.
Short interest at 19% of float combined with implied volatility of 128% reflects concentrated bearish positioning that can amplify downside but also creates the conditions for a sharp rally if the growth thesis is validated through earnings.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 12% of float over the next two quarters as earnings results reduce the conviction of short sellers.
CounterA 19% short position likely reflects informed concern about supplier concentration and execution risk; if the next earnings report disappoints, the elevated short base could drive further forced selling rather than a covering rally.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 8.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 7.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $312,000 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.2 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
0.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.5 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 25%
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:8.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:102d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.65
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Momentum at 8.3, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 0.8, Peer rank at 3.0, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Headwind
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading sessions.
- P4Elevated Short Interest Dual Edge
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float within 2 quarters.
- P5Analyst Upside Risk Reward
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target falls below $21.00.