Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
- ▸Attractively valued
MG · Why this verdict
Why Mistras Group (MG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with the latest EPS of 0.28 against a 0.25 estimate and an average surprise of about 25.7%. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the November 4 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe company missed in three of the four quarters before this streak, so the beat record is recent and may not be durable. | ||
Valuation is reasonable: the forward P/E is 17.0x and the PEG ratio is 0.96. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should stay below 20x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 17.0x for a business with no moat and revenue growth scoring only 3.6 is not clearly cheap. | ||
The stock at $21.53 is 9.2% above the $19.55 analyst target and only 1.8% from its 52-week high, with 5.4% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets need to rise above the current price for new upside to open up; otherwise the stock should consolidate. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings beats can prompt rapid target upgrades, and rising volume with the price above its 200-day average supports the move. | ||
Quality is below average at 4.6 out of 10 with no competitive moat, although the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows improving fundamentals. Quality breakdown | Margins and returns should improve if the earnings beats continue. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin, operating margin and net margin scores are all weak at 1.8 to 3.1, limiting how much profit can improve. | ||
Revenue is concentrated geographically, with the North America segment at 81.0% of the total, which ties results to one regional economy. Bear case | The North America share should stay near 80% unless international growth accelerates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA home-market concentration in a large, stable economy can be a strength compared with diversifying into riskier regions. | ||
The company beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters, with the latest EPS of 0.28 against a 0.25 estimate and an average surprise of about 25.7%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the November 4 report.
CounterThe company missed in three of the four quarters before this streak, so the beat record is recent and may not be durable.
Valuation is reasonable: the forward P/E is 17.0x and the PEG ratio is 0.96.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should stay below 20x while earnings grow.
CounterA forward P/E of 17.0x for a business with no moat and revenue growth scoring only 3.6 is not clearly cheap.
The stock at $21.53 is 9.2% above the $19.55 analyst target and only 1.8% from its 52-week high, with 5.4% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets need to rise above the current price for new upside to open up; otherwise the stock should consolidate.
CounterEarnings beats can prompt rapid target upgrades, and rising volume with the price above its 200-day average supports the move.
Quality is below average at 4.6 out of 10 with no competitive moat, although the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows improving fundamentals.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and returns should improve if the earnings beats continue.
CounterGross margin, operating margin and net margin scores are all weak at 1.8 to 3.1, limiting how much profit can improve.
Revenue is concentrated geographically, with the North America segment at 81.0% of the total, which ties results to one regional economy.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The North America share should stay near 80% unless international growth accelerates.
CounterA home-market concentration in a large, stable economy can be a strength compared with diversifying into riskier regions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 1.2 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.83
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.90
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.90 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.3, Value at 7.1, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Momentum at 3.2, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 24x from the current 17.0x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 10% from the current -9.2%.
- P4No Moat Modest Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5/9 from the current 8/9.
- P5North America Concentration
Trip ifNorth America share of revenue falls below 65% from the current 81%.