Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
- ▸Attractively valued
MG · Why this verdict
Why Mistras Group (MG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is scored 3.6, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, though the balance sheet shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The overall quality score should cross above 4.0 as margin and moat weaknesses are offset by the strong Piotroski trend. | →Stable |
| CounterA red-flagged earnings-quality ratio of just 13% FCF-to-net-income suggests reported earnings may not be backed by real cash generation. | ||
The V9 engine failed both the momentum gate, at 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, at 0.8 versus the 1.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should rise above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio above 1.5 as the technical setup strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is described as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 24, a condition that has historically preceded short-term bounces. | ||
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.26 alongside high implied volatility of 82%, both flagged as risk factors. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less skewed toward puts. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extremely high put/call ratio can also reflect hedging activity rather than outright bearish directional bets. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with a positive average surprise of 19.2%, despite one recent miss of -7.3%. Earnings | The beat rate should hold at 2 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent reported quarter carries no comparable estimate data, making the beat/miss trend harder to confirm going forward. | ||
The insider signal reads bearish, following an $18,000 sale representing 0.003% of market cap in the trailing 90 days. Insider | Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish as buying resumes or selling ceases. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sale is explicitly described as negligible in materiality, offering weak evidence of genuine insider bearishness. | ||
Quality is scored 3.6, just below the engine's 4.0 floor, though the balance sheet shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The overall quality score should cross above 4.0 as margin and moat weaknesses are offset by the strong Piotroski trend.
CounterA red-flagged earnings-quality ratio of just 13% FCF-to-net-income suggests reported earnings may not be backed by real cash generation.
The V9 engine failed both the momentum gate, at 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate, at 0.8 versus the 1.5 threshold.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should rise above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio above 1.5 as the technical setup strengthens.
CounterThe stock is described as oversold in an uptrend with RSI at 24, a condition that has historically preceded short-term bounces.
Options positioning shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.26 alongside high implied volatility of 82%, both flagged as risk factors.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less skewed toward puts.
CounterAn extremely high put/call ratio can also reflect hedging activity rather than outright bearish directional bets.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with a positive average surprise of 19.2%, despite one recent miss of -7.3%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 2 or more of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining positive.
CounterThe most recent reported quarter carries no comparable estimate data, making the beat/miss trend harder to confirm going forward.
The insider signal reads bearish, following an $18,000 sale representing 0.003% of market cap in the trailing 90 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity should turn neutral or bullish as buying resumes or selling ceases.
CounterThe sale is explicitly described as negligible in materiality, offering weak evidence of genuine insider bearishness.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MG shows a strong Piotroski trend and a prior earnings-beat streak, but failed momentum and asymmetry gates, elevated put/call positioning, and bearish insider selling weigh on the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 1.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 13% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $18,000 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.26
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.09
Upside
+10.7%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 8.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.8, Value at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.7, Momentum at 2.9, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Despite Piotroski
Trip ifOverall quality score falls below 2.0, showing the Piotroski strength failed to offset earnings-quality concerns.
- P2Momentum And Asymmetry Gates Failed
Trip ifMomentum score exceeds 4.5 and asymmetry ratio exceeds 1.5, clearing both V9 gates.
- P3Elevated Put Call And Implied Vol
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5, normalizing options positioning from the current 5.26 reading.
- P4Earnings Beat History With Recent Miss
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 1 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to bullish with net buying that exceeds $50,000 over a 90-day window.