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MAXMediaAlpha, Inc.Hold6.0·$13.65-0.15%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MediaAlpha screens statistically cheap with a strong earnings beat record, but extreme insider selling and an overbought, late-cycle momentum reading argue for caution at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Growth Adjusted ValuationStable
  • Extreme Insider SellingStable
  • Overbought Late Cycle MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away).

MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee... Read more

$13.65+4.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#15 of 36 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.13%
Stop $12.60Target $14.10(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$13.67+0.1%6 analysts
$14.10our TP
$13.65price
$13.67mean
$11
$19

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 90. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About MediaAlpha, Inc.

About MediaAlpha, Inc.

MediaAlpha generated $1.1 billion of revenue and $2.2 billion of Transaction Value in 2025 (up 28.8% and 44.5%, respectively) by connecting insurance carriers and distributors with high-intent consumers across roughly 141 million Consumer Referrals. The property & casualty insurance vertical alone accounted for 90.1% of total 2025 revenue, up from 76.1% in 2024, while the platform served over 1,050 total insurance partners and 700-plus Demand Partners across its Open and Private Marketplace models.

MediaAlpha earns a fee each time a click, call, or lead is transacted between a Demand Partner and a Supply Partner, with clicks representing 90.1% of 2025 Transaction Value, up from 84.1% in 2024. Partner retention is strong, with 99% of 2025 Transaction Value coming from Demand Partner relationships that existed in 2024, though the company also operates a lower-margin Private Marketplace model that some partners migrate to once their volume with each other reaches scale, which can compress net revenue and profit margins. MediaAlpha competes against direct-distribution insurance companies, insurance-focused research portals, internet search and advertising platforms, and Supply Partners' own in-house sales forces. In October 2025, a Consent Order resolving FTC allegations of misleading advertising and telemarketing practices took effect, requiring a $45.0 million payment and new compliance processes, and Transaction Value in the company's under-65 health insurance subvertical fell $79 million year over year as certain partners were terminated or declined to comply.

Show full overview

MediaAlpha's revenue is concentrated among a small number of Demand Partners: its largest single partner accounted for 25% of 2025 revenue and its second-largest another 24%, while the top 20 Demand Partners combined made up 82% of revenue, up sharply from 72% in 2024. Most partner agreements carry no minimum volume commitment and are cancellable on 30 to 60 days' notice, so the loss of even one of these top-two accounts - which together approach half of total revenue - could move results materially in a single quarter, a risk the 10-K explicitly flags as heightened credit exposure alongside the ordinary demand risk from insurance underwriting cycles.

See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

From MediaAlpha, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — MediaAlpha, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-08T23:03:58Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.6% away)
Negative news sentiment (-0.80)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.9
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$757M
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn3.4%
ROE
Rev Growth17.3%
Beta1.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV111%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.62%=EXTREMEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
90 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.96Resistance $14.39

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Insider activity: 0.62%=extreme

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $13.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 90. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.10 (+3.3%), stop $12.60 (−8.3%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.10 (+4.1% upside). Target $14.10 (+3.3%), stop $12.60 (−8.3%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $12.60.

What are the risks of investing in MAX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Negative news sentiment (-0.80).

Is MAX overvalued or undervalued?

MediaAlpha, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.9 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MAX?

12 analysts cover MAX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $14.

What does MediaAlpha, Inc. do?MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners)...

MediaAlpha operates a technology platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors (Demand Partners) with high-intent consumers sourced through publisher websites (Supply Partners), mainly in property & casualty, health, and life insurance. The company earns a fee on each Consumer Referral transacted, generating $1.1 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in Transaction Value in 2025, with the P&C insurance vertical alone accounting for 90.1% of total revenue. MediaAlpha's top 20 Demand Partners represented 82% of 2025 revenue, reflecting significant customer concentration in a mar

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