Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.38
- ▸Attractively valued
MAKO · Why this verdict
Why Mako Mining (MAKO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mako Mining combines an excellent 36% ROE, a wide moat, and 116% YoY growth with a strikingly cheap growth-adjusted valuation, though the engine flags current momentum weakness as a temporary headwind that argues for a staggered rather than immediate entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Mako Mining shows a 36% ROE and a wide moat, with the engine characterizing it as a business that has compounded strong returns alongside growth, backed by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should stay above 25% over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGold miners' returns are highly sensitive to commodity prices, so a drop in gold prices could compress margins and ROE independent of company-specific execution. | ||
Revenue is growing at 116% YoY, an exceptional pace even against a small base. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSuch explosive growth rates are difficult to sustain and often decelerate sharply as the revenue base grows. | ||
With a PEG ratio of 0.12, the stock appears significantly undervalued relative to its growth rate. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should remain low as the stock re-rates upward, closing the valuation gap. | →Stable |
| CounterPEG ratios can look artificially low when growth is driven by a temporary commodity price cycle rather than durable earnings power. | ||
Despite excellent fundamentals, momentum remains weak at a reading of 3.0, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, which the engine characterizes as a temporary headwind rather than a structural issue. Edge rationale | Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold within the next couple of quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum weakness can persist longer than expected in commodity-linked names if gold prices stay range-bound or decline. | ||
Mako Mining shows a 36% ROE and a wide moat, with the engine characterizing it as a business that has compounded strong returns alongside growth, backed by a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should stay above 25% over the next several quarters.
CounterGold miners' returns are highly sensitive to commodity prices, so a drop in gold prices could compress margins and ROE independent of company-specific execution.
Revenue is growing at 116% YoY, an exceptional pace even against a small base.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters.
CounterSuch explosive growth rates are difficult to sustain and often decelerate sharply as the revenue base grows.
With a PEG ratio of 0.12, the stock appears significantly undervalued relative to its growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should remain low as the stock re-rates upward, closing the valuation gap.
CounterPEG ratios can look artificially low when growth is driven by a temporary commodity price cycle rather than durable earnings power.
Despite excellent fundamentals, momentum remains weak at a reading of 3.0, below the engine's 4.5 threshold, which the engine characterizes as a temporary headwind rather than a structural issue.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold within the next couple of quarters.
CounterMomentum weakness can persist longer than expected in commodity-linked names if gold prices stay range-bound or decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 62% YoY
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=9.2
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.76>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Quality at 9.3, and Value at 9.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Peer rank at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20%, reversing the current 36% reading.
- P2Exceptional Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY, reversing the current 116% pace.
- P3Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.12.
- P4Temporary Momentum Headwind
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 3 additional consecutive quarters, disproving the temporary-headwind read.