Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.04
LXFR · Why this verdict
Why Luxfer Holdings (LXFR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Luxfer has beaten EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 25.5%, and forward estimates have risen sharply in the past month. Earnings | The company should continue beating consensus EPS estimates at its upcoming print. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining 14% YoY, so the beats may be driven by cost-cutting or margin expansion rather than durable top-line strength. | ||
Despite the strong EPS beats, Luxfer's revenue is declining 14% YoY, a red flag on the durability of its earnings quality. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive within the next few quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterExcellent cash conversion of 408% FCF/NI suggests the company is monetizing existing assets efficiently even amid top-line contraction. | ||
The stock is trading within 1.7% of its analyst price target, implying a risk/reward setup that is close to breakeven. Warnings | Analyst price targets should be raised meaningfully so modeled upside expands past 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterThis can be a common feature of value stocks with strong quality metrics that simply lack a near-term re-rating catalyst, not necessarily a sign of overvaluation. | ||
Momentum has turned negative, with on-balance volume falling, even though price remains above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice still holding above the 200-day moving average signals the longer-term uptrend structure remains technically intact. | ||
Luxfer has beaten EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 25.5%, and forward estimates have risen sharply in the past month.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating consensus EPS estimates at its upcoming print.
CounterRevenue is declining 14% YoY, so the beats may be driven by cost-cutting or margin expansion rather than durable top-line strength.
Despite the strong EPS beats, Luxfer's revenue is declining 14% YoY, a red flag on the durability of its earnings quality.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive within the next few quarters.
CounterExcellent cash conversion of 408% FCF/NI suggests the company is monetizing existing assets efficiently even amid top-line contraction.
The stock is trading within 1.7% of its analyst price target, implying a risk/reward setup that is close to breakeven.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised meaningfully so modeled upside expands past 15%.
CounterThis can be a common feature of value stocks with strong quality metrics that simply lack a near-term re-rating catalyst, not necessarily a sign of overvaluation.
Momentum has turned negative, with on-balance volume falling, even though price remains above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold.
CounterPrice still holding above the 200-day moving average signals the longer-term uptrend structure remains technically intact.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Luxfer has strung together four straight earnings beats and rapidly rising forward estimates, but a 14% revenue decline, a stock price already at its analyst target, and negative momentum keep the setup mixed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 408% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 9.6 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
2.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 2.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $321,588 (0.069% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.1 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 109%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 5 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+2.9%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 21d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.9 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Catalyst at 6.7, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Insider at 2.9, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.
- P2Revenue Decline Risk
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Valuation Ceiling
Trip ifAnalyst 12-month upside falls below 0% from the current 1.7%.
- P4Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.