Value
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
- ▸Expensive valuation
LRCX · Why this verdict
Why Lam Research (LRCX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 67%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 65% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $8,561,667 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 9.2 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.0%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Above max pain $130
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 34.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-10.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.6) with weak momentum (3.1)
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.87>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Value at 2.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Quality at 8.6, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Value at 2.4, Momentum at 3.1, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.