Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
LPG · Why this verdict
Why Dorian LPG (LPG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Dorian LPG is a high-quality, fast-growing shipping business (28% ROE, 56% margins, 124% YoY growth) that looks cheap on forward earnings. The price is now 10.5% above the analyst target, so most near-term upside appears priced in, and earnings quality and customer concentration are the main risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Profitability is elite: the data shows a 28% return on equity, 56% margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with overall quality scoring 8.3 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Margins and return on equity should hold near current levels through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping margins are cyclical and a normalization in charter rates could compress them sharply from peak levels. | ||
Revenue growth is very strong at 124% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $187.9M in June 2026 versus $119.96M in the December 2025 quarter. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay well above year-ago levels, with growth remaining above 30% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes off a trough base, and the warning that earnings are normalizing (P/E expanding 1.9x) suggests the growth rate will fade. | ||
The stock at $54.06 is already 10.5% above the $48.37 analyst target, leaving no upside to consensus and 8.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets need to rise above the current price for upside to reappear; otherwise the stock should consolidate or pull back. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets are lagging and conservative after 124% growth, and coverage is light, so the stock can keep climbing past them. | ||
Earnings quality has a red flag: free cash flow is -37% of net income, so reported profits are not converting to cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income as fleet investment normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect vessel purchases and fleet renewal, which are growth investments, not weak earnings. | ||
Revenue is highly concentrated: 99.0% runs through one counterparty (Helios Pool, a MOL Energia joint venture), and the business sits in a single VLGC shipping segment. Bear case | The pool arrangement and the single-segment exposure should persist, keeping results tied to VLGC charter rates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA commercial pool pools many vessels across charterers, which spreads the real exposure and can improve utilization. | ||
Profitability is elite: the data shows a 28% return on equity, 56% margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with overall quality scoring 8.3 out of 10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and return on equity should hold near current levels through the next 12 months.
CounterShipping margins are cyclical and a normalization in charter rates could compress them sharply from peak levels.
Revenue growth is very strong at 124% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $187.9M in June 2026 versus $119.96M in the December 2025 quarter.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay well above year-ago levels, with growth remaining above 30% YoY.
CounterGrowth comes off a trough base, and the warning that earnings are normalizing (P/E expanding 1.9x) suggests the growth rate will fade.
The stock at $54.06 is already 10.5% above the $48.37 analyst target, leaving no upside to consensus and 8.0% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets need to rise above the current price for upside to reappear; otherwise the stock should consolidate or pull back.
CounterAnalyst targets are lagging and conservative after 124% growth, and coverage is light, so the stock can keep climbing past them.
Earnings quality has a red flag: free cash flow is -37% of net income, so reported profits are not converting to cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income as fleet investment normalizes.
CounterNegative free cash flow may reflect vessel purchases and fleet renewal, which are growth investments, not weak earnings.
Revenue is highly concentrated: 99.0% runs through one counterparty (Helios Pool, a MOL Energia joint venture), and the business sits in a single VLGC shipping segment.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The pool arrangement and the single-segment exposure should persist, keeping results tied to VLGC charter rates.
CounterA commercial pool pools many vessels across charterers, which spreads the real exposure and can improve utilization.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -37% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 124% YoY
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,837,127 (0.339% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.5 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.01, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (3)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.34%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.33
Upside
-10.4%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (2.6)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -1.33 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.3, and Peer rank at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Insider at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Margins And Returns
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% from the current 56%.
- P2Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 10% (price below target) while fundamentals hold.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 50% from the current -37%.
- P5Single Pool Concentration
Trip ifRevenue share through the single pool counterparty falls below 50% from the current 99%.