Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.15
LNT · Why this verdict
Why Alliant Energy (LNT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Three of the last four quarters beat earnings estimates, the stock has formed a golden cross above all moving averages with volume accumulation, and peer-relative margins rank among the best in the sector; the critical offset is that free cash flow is negative — converting at negative 146% of net income — and the share price has already moved above the near-term resistance target, leaving no upside buffer at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Three of the last four reported quarters beat earnings estimates, including 2 consecutive beats in the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.4%; while the margin of upside is modest, the delivery pattern signals consistent execution against sell-side expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to at least 5 of the next 6 quarters, with individual quarterly surprises remaining above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the last four quarters came in at roughly negative 6%, and average surprises at 1.4% are narrow enough that a single guidance miss could break the streak; a yield trap warning alongside the beat streak raises questions about whether the dividend payout is sustainable, which could create earnings pressure if the payout is cut. | ||
Free cash flow converts at negative 146% of net income — meaning the company is not generating positive free cash flow — which is flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; a business reporting positive net income while burning cash raises questions about the durability of returns and the safety of the dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the conversion deficit and supporting dividend sustainability. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities routinely carry negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles as infrastructure spending precedes the rate base recovery that drives future earnings; if capital expenditure is the primary driver of the negative conversion, it may normalize as investment programs complete. | ||
The share price of $73.55 sits above the near-term resistance target of $73.18, leaving negative upside of approximately 0.5% and a reward-to-risk ratio of negative 0.13-to-1; the setup offers no margin of safety at current levels and does not support adding exposure. Price targets | A price decline of 10% or more creates upside to the near-term resistance target of at least 12% and restores a positive reward-to-risk profile above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is positive — golden cross, above all moving averages, with volume accumulation — and continued technical strength could carry the stock above resistance to a new higher target, making the current over-resistance position a temporary condition rather than a ceiling. | ||
A golden cross pattern, price above all moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume collectively describe a technically strong breakout configuration; this momentum backdrop creates a supportive environment for price appreciation if fundamentals hold. Chart pattern detection | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to accumulate for at least 60 consecutive trading days, confirming the breakout is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is near a 52-week high with high short interest of 11% and elevated implied volatility; a high-short-interest, near-52-week-high setup can reverse sharply if a catalyst disappoints, converting strong technicals into a reversal pattern quickly. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters beat earnings estimates, including 2 consecutive beats in the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.4%; while the margin of upside is modest, the delivery pattern signals consistent execution against sell-side expectations.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 5 of the next 6 quarters, with individual quarterly surprises remaining above 2%.
CounterThe one miss in the last four quarters came in at roughly negative 6%, and average surprises at 1.4% are narrow enough that a single guidance miss could break the streak; a yield trap warning alongside the beat streak raises questions about whether the dividend payout is sustainable, which could create earnings pressure if the payout is cut.
Free cash flow converts at negative 146% of net income — meaning the company is not generating positive free cash flow — which is flagged as a red flag for earnings quality; a business reporting positive net income while burning cash raises questions about the durability of returns and the safety of the dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the conversion deficit and supporting dividend sustainability.
CounterRegulated utilities routinely carry negative free cash flow during capital investment cycles as infrastructure spending precedes the rate base recovery that drives future earnings; if capital expenditure is the primary driver of the negative conversion, it may normalize as investment programs complete.
The share price of $73.55 sits above the near-term resistance target of $73.18, leaving negative upside of approximately 0.5% and a reward-to-risk ratio of negative 0.13-to-1; the setup offers no margin of safety at current levels and does not support adding exposure.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A price decline of 10% or more creates upside to the near-term resistance target of at least 12% and restores a positive reward-to-risk profile above 1.5-to-1.
CounterMomentum is positive — golden cross, above all moving averages, with volume accumulation — and continued technical strength could carry the stock above resistance to a new higher target, making the current over-resistance position a temporary condition rather than a ceiling.
A golden cross pattern, price above all moving averages, bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume collectively describe a technically strong breakout configuration; this momentum backdrop creates a supportive environment for price appreciation if fundamentals hold.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues to accumulate for at least 60 consecutive trading days, confirming the breakout is sustained.
CounterThe stock is near a 52-week high with high short interest of 11% and elevated implied volatility; a high-short-interest, near-52-week-high setup can reverse sharply if a catalyst disappoints, converting strong technicals into a reversal pattern quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 9.2 |
| Current ratio | 1.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -139% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.2 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 0.6 |
| volatility | 8.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.25
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.62
Upside
-6.1%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.1 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.1, Momentum at 5.7, and Insider at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Technical at 3.8, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.62 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Three Of Four
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak and signaling deteriorating delivery.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above $0 for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the conversion deficit and falsifying the negative-FCF concern.
- P3Price Above Resistance No Upside
Trip ifShare price declines to $65 or below, creating upside to the near-term resistance target of at least 12% and restoring a favorable reward-to-risk profile.
- P4Strong Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope falls below 0% for 4 consecutive weeks, reversing the golden cross uptrend signal and confirming a structural breakdown.