Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
LMB · Why this verdict
Why Limbach Holdings (LMB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four quarters, with one in-line result, and the data highlights this as a strong earnings beat streak with an average surprise around 60%. Bull case | Continuing to beat or meet estimates over the next several quarters would extend this pattern and reinforce execution consistency. | →Stable |
| CounterNone of this earnings strength has stopped the stock from falling into a technical setup described in the data as a falling knife, suggesting the market is discounting something beyond the reported numbers. | ||
Shares screen as attractively valued, trading at roughly 14.9x forward earnings with a PEG ratio near 0.17. Valuation breakdown | The valuation multiple holding near current levels or expanding would support the value case as earnings continue to come in strong. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG this low alongside a hard momentum breakdown can also signal the market pricing in a deterioration in the growth outlook that the trailing PEG ratio does not yet reflect. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope near -5.9%, described in the data as a confirmed downtrend, with a death-cross pattern the engine treats as a hard block and a setup it labels a falling knife. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaiming its 200-day moving average with the moving-average slope turning positive would signal the downtrend is reversing. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own gate treats this death cross as a hard block rather than a soft warning, indicating the downtrend is considered severe enough to override the otherwise favorable valuation and earnings signals. | ||
The stated risk/reward remains favorable on a price-target basis, with upside near 32% against roughly 4.2% downside to the stop-loss level, producing an asymmetry ratio of about 3.2. Targets | The favorable asymmetry should persist if the shares stabilize and begin closing the gap toward the price target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe hard momentum and death-cross gate failures mean the engine itself does not treat this favorable ratio as actionable, since a falling-knife setup can keep pushing the price further from the target before any recovery begins. | ||
Insider activity skews bearish, with a net sale of roughly 20,400 shares across nine sell transactions over the past 90 days and no offsetting buys. Insider | A shift toward net insider buying, or a marked slowdown in insider sell transactions, would indicate the bearish insider signal is easing. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sales are recorded only in share counts with no disclosed dollar value, and the engine's own insider-selling severity is rated as none rather than elevated. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in three of its last four quarters, with one in-line result, and the data highlights this as a strong earnings beat streak with an average surprise around 60%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Continuing to beat or meet estimates over the next several quarters would extend this pattern and reinforce execution consistency.
CounterNone of this earnings strength has stopped the stock from falling into a technical setup described in the data as a falling knife, suggesting the market is discounting something beyond the reported numbers.
Shares screen as attractively valued, trading at roughly 14.9x forward earnings with a PEG ratio near 0.17.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation multiple holding near current levels or expanding would support the value case as earnings continue to come in strong.
CounterA PEG this low alongside a hard momentum breakdown can also signal the market pricing in a deterioration in the growth outlook that the trailing PEG ratio does not yet reflect.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a 30-day slope near -5.9%, described in the data as a confirmed downtrend, with a death-cross pattern the engine treats as a hard block and a setup it labels a falling knife.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaiming its 200-day moving average with the moving-average slope turning positive would signal the downtrend is reversing.
CounterThe engine's own gate treats this death cross as a hard block rather than a soft warning, indicating the downtrend is considered severe enough to override the otherwise favorable valuation and earnings signals.
The stated risk/reward remains favorable on a price-target basis, with upside near 32% against roughly 4.2% downside to the stop-loss level, producing an asymmetry ratio of about 3.2.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The favorable asymmetry should persist if the shares stabilize and begin closing the gap toward the price target.
CounterThe hard momentum and death-cross gate failures mean the engine itself does not treat this favorable ratio as actionable, since a falling-knife setup can keep pushing the price further from the target before any recovery begins.
Insider activity skews bearish, with a net sale of roughly 20,400 shares across nine sell transactions over the past 90 days and no offsetting buys.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- A shift toward net insider buying, or a marked slowdown in insider sell transactions, would indicate the bearish insider signal is easing.
CounterThe sales are recorded only in share counts with no disclosed dollar value, and the engine's own insider-selling severity is rated as none rather than elevated.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Limbach Holdings has strung together strong earnings beats and screens as attractively valued with a favorable price-target-based risk/reward, but the stock has broken down into a falling-knife technical setup with a hard death-cross block and bearish insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 56% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,508,978 (0.158% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.16%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.10
Upside
+30.3%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Momentum at 1.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Insider at 3.8, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Recent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 14.9x.
- P3Falling Knife Momentum Breakdown
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope rises above 0% per 30 days, turning positive from the current -5.9%.
- P4Favorable Price Target Asymmetry
Trip ifThe risk/reward ratio compresses below 1.5x from the current 3.23x.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider transactions turn positive (net buying exceeds 0 shares) over a 90-day period.