Value
0.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
LLYVK · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. - S (LLYVK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Live's business quality is weak (no competitive moat, Piotroski F-Score 2/9) and it has missed estimates in three of the last four reported quarters. Shares sit only 3.7% below the analyst target with a 5.4% downside to the stop, so the setup offers little reward for the risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is poor: the data shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, with overall quality scoring 1.4 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Quality score and Piotroski F-Score should stay depressed over the next 12 months absent a structural improvement in profitability. | →Stable |
| CounterHolding-company structures can screen poorly on ROA and margins while the underlying assets still carry value that these ratios fail to capture. | ||
Earnings are deteriorating: three of the last four reported quarters were misses, including a latest actual of -2.92 against a +0.42 estimate. Earnings | Further misses or negative surprises should continue until results stabilize near estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge swings in reported EPS for a holding company can come from non-operating or mark-to-market items rather than core business weakness. | ||
Reward is thin relative to risk: the price of 100.04 is only 3.7% below the 103.7 analyst target, against 5.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.67. Upside pct | Without a re-rating or target increases, upside to the analyst target should remain in low single digits. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets can be raised quickly after a strong print, and the stock has positive momentum that could carry it past the current target. | ||
The company carries a flagged high-severity concentration risk tied to a single counterparty, Live Nation, which exposes results to one relationship. Bear case | The concentration flag should persist unless the company diversifies its revenue or counterparty exposure within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA long-standing core counterparty relationship can be a stable source of recurring revenue rather than a vulnerability. | ||
Technical momentum is a relative strength: the momentum score is 7.0 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | The price should hold above the 200-day moving average with accumulation continuing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum alone is a weak support when fundamentals are poor and the price already sits near the analyst target. | ||
Business quality is poor: the data shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, with overall quality scoring 1.4 out of 10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score and Piotroski F-Score should stay depressed over the next 12 months absent a structural improvement in profitability.
CounterHolding-company structures can screen poorly on ROA and margins while the underlying assets still carry value that these ratios fail to capture.
Earnings are deteriorating: three of the last four reported quarters were misses, including a latest actual of -2.92 against a +0.42 estimate.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Further misses or negative surprises should continue until results stabilize near estimates.
CounterLarge swings in reported EPS for a holding company can come from non-operating or mark-to-market items rather than core business weakness.
Reward is thin relative to risk: the price of 100.04 is only 3.7% below the 103.7 analyst target, against 5.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.67.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Without a re-rating or target increases, upside to the analyst target should remain in low single digits.
CounterAnalyst targets can be raised quickly after a strong print, and the stock has positive momentum that could carry it past the current target.
The company carries a flagged high-severity concentration risk tied to a single counterparty, Live Nation, which exposes results to one relationship.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The concentration flag should persist unless the company diversifies its revenue or counterparty exposure within 12 months.
CounterA long-standing core counterparty relationship can be a stable source of recurring revenue rather than a vulnerability.
Technical momentum is a relative strength: the momentum score is 7.0 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should hold above the 200-day moving average with accumulation continuing.
CounterMomentum alone is a weak support when fundamentals are poor and the price already sits near the analyst target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
Momentum
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $134 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 7.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.41
Upside
+2.6%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Momentum at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.41.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Value at 0.0, Quality at 1.4, and Peer rank at 1.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises to at least 5/9 from the current 2/9.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target exceeds 15% from the current 3.7%.
- P4Counterparty Concentration Risk
Trip ifNumber of high-severity concentration risks drops to 0 from the current 1.
- P5Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.0.